Urban Growth Modeling Of Yunyang Region Based On CA-Markov

Population,Resources,Environment and Development is a global problem,while the land is an important carrier of all human activities and social development."Land Use/Land Cover Change(LUCC)" is one of the "International Geosphere-Biosphere Program(IGBP)" and "Global Environmental Change Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change(IHDP)",research include land use dynamics,land cover regional and global dynamics and integrated model.By establishing a dynamic model of land use to understand the rate of spatial and temporal characteristics and driving forces and future trends,has become a hot area of research.The activity iscomplicatedly and intensely in urbn system.Yunyang,surrounded by complex mountainous,has very limited land resource for new developments.Thus,the central city of Yunyang need to strengthen management and control of construction land spatial layout,intensive and economical use of land resources.Internationally,Dinamica EGO model has been very extensive,many scholars use its analog scales in different parts of the various types of land use change,and achieved good results.Dinamica EGO model is based on CA-Markovmodel,evidence weight method based on Bayesian could be established relationship between factors and land use type drive,and calculate transition probabilities.Selection Drivingof model simulation is importance,independent of each other between the driving factor is a necessary condition in order to avoid the correlation between the driving factors.Just calculate the likelihood of each cell state shift in land use transition probabilities,and specifically how to grow in space,we need to set the conversion mode.The cell growth control by Expander process and Patcher process on Dinamica EGO model,to better simulate the real land use change phenomenon,research work of this paper as follows:1)First,to berrer understand the driving forces of spatial pattern and land use change in Yunyang,the 2006-2015 years land use datasets were annalyzed through for aspects,such as driving forces,the number of changes,landscape pattern and spatial characteristics.2)To simulate land use changes caused by the Yunyang urbanization process based on Dinamica EGO model,which need to model structure and parameter settings localization design.In this new model,the drinving forces are categorized into two types:statistic and dynamic.Furthermore,a set of parameters,such as mean path areas?spatial and ratio of Expander and Patcher functions were locally refined to achieve the model successfully constructed.3)The simulated results from the new model were validated by the observed dataWe evaluated the model results at total and sub-region levels,and majorland-use types.The study indicated that this model can capture the spatialpattern of the land use and land cover changes in Yunyang.4)We predicted the spatial pattern of the land use of Yunyang in 2022 under the current development ratehow land usewill change under different urban growth models.