The Research On Credit Risk Control About SMEs Assemble Bond

SMEs assemble bond is a collection of financial products to effectively solve the problem of financing difficulties of SMEs and is significant efforts of our government to promote SMEs.In practice, the capital markets have become more concerned about the credit risk of SME assemble bonds, and with the gradually expand of SMEs assemble bond it is particularly important for its management of credit risk after the issuance and listing. The reason follows that, on the one hand the SMEs are generally smaller, and have fragile vitality, so the credit risk is the main risk, and the volatility of the credit risk is larger after the listing; on the other hand, SMEs assemble bond is jointly issued by several SMEs so the breach association between enterprises also increased the defaults, and with the changes in the macroeconomic environment and industrial policies, default correlation between companies will also change; at the same time due to the third-party security agencies, the credit risk of SMEs assemble bond will decrease, but the secured party at the same time generate default itself. In short, because of its unique distribution model of SMEs assemble bond, it is very important to measure the expected default.This paper divides the credit risk of assemble bond into three parts:risk of eachissuer, risk of the bonded entity and risk of the guarantee, on the basis of related literature measurement of general theories are put forward for SEM enterprise credit risk.Based on the deliberate study of the distinguishing features and characteristics of each risk, the paper introduced theory of incomplete information broken window theory and theory of endogenous bankruptcy to analyze causes of assemble bond.Considering the features of assemble bond, this paper uses the modified PFM model to measure the individual default risk,in the presence that enterprises are numerous collection bonds, this paper uses copula function to measure the risk of the bonded entity,and based on Vasicek model we measure the third party credit risk. According to the model built, we use the existing data about set bond to make an empirical test to measure the tracking the credit rating.Finally, the article put forward some corresponding policies from three angles, the angles of government, the main financing as well as third-party security agencies.