Research On The Causes Of Bond Default And Risk Early Warning Of Taihe Group

Under the background of the gradual normalization of the development of the bond market,bond issuance has always been an important way of financing for real estateenterprises.From 1999 to 2020,the proportion of bond financing of real estateenterprises increased from 4.79% to 46%.With the favor of bond financing in the realestate industry,the risk of debt default is also increasing.On August 20,2020,the meeting defined the "three red lines" of real estate financing management rules,constantly tightened the financing channels of real estate enterprises,suddenly increased the refinancing pressure of bond issuers,the problem of capital liquidity in the real estate industry is becoming more and more serious,and bond defaults began to occur frequently.Taihe group belongs to the top 500 billion real estate enterprises.In 2020,there was the first bond default,and the credit rating of the defaulted bonds became higher as a whole,breaking the myth of "big but not falling" of real estate real estate enterprises.Since then,many large real estate enterprises such as Tianfang group,Xinhualian and Fusheng group have successively experienced bond thunderstorms,and the debt default risk of the real estate industry has been rising,which has attracted attention from all walks of life.Taking Taihe Group as the research object,this paper explores the influencing factors of bond default risk in the real estate industry in 2020,so as to provide some reference for real estate enterprises to avoid risks under the influence of the epidemic in the later stage.The main analysis points of this paper are as follows:firstly,this paper explores the root causes of bond default of Taihe Group from the industry level and company level.First,in the context of enterprises adhering to the first-line and radical expansion,it coincided with the tightening of property market regulation and suffered the impact of the epidemic,resulting in a-significant decline in profits;Second,under the background of imperfect internal governance mechanism,the role of highly leveraged radical investment is superimposed to accelerate the deterioration of enterprise credit qualification,leading to the decline of refinancing ability,resulting in debt crisis.Secondly,Based on the complementary analysis of modified Z-score Model and modified KMV default distance model,the bond default risk of Taihe Group is effectively warned from the inside and outside of the company.Finally,based on the above analysis of the causes of bond default,this paper obtains the Enlightenment of preventing bond default risk from the perspective of bond issuers,credit rating agencies and investors.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first,the increase of real estatepolicy risk,sudden epidemic situation and the deterioration of enterprises’ own operating conditions are the important reasons for bond default.Second,based on a comprehensive perspective,according to the frequent changes of internal executives,frequent thunderstorms of other types of debt and urgent self rescue and rescue behavior,they can be used as early warning signals of debt risk;Based on the financial perspective,it is calculated according to the Z-value scoring model.When the Z-value is less than the critical value,we should be vigilant against the bond default risk.According to the KMV default distance model,the smaller the default distance DD,the greater the probability that the enterprise will fall into financial crisis.Third,it is very important to put forward feasible opinions on the defects of the internal governance mechanism of the bond issuer,the large amount of debt,the slow speed of sales collection,the backward credit evaluation results,and the poor risk discrimination ability of investors.