Research Of Urban Industrial Land Scaleprediction At A Context Of Socioeconomictransformation

With Chinese economy entering the key phase of transformation and upgrade, qualitative state transition of industrial structure necessarily demand the structure of industrial land to provide support and guarantee. Especially, with the rapid urbanization, the scarcity of land, as important production goods, has been more prominent. More, the further urbanization will encounter the restriction of land resources. So it’s been the key development for rational utilization, transformation and upgrade of future land to predict the development scale of industrial land scientifically and rationally. However, in the background of market economy and resource restriction, the traditional predictive method of the development scale of industrial land can’t meet the requirement of transforming scientific development. It also can’t lead the rational expansion of city’s industrial land and optimization and upgrade of the structure.In the thesis, in order to improve the rational and scientific research, it reviews predictive methods of the development scale of industrial land by attempting the analysis of transforming development in economic society. Firstly, through analyzing the process of transforming development of big cities from home and abroad, the thesis summarizes and predicts the tendency and demand of industrial land in the background of transforming development. On the basis of such consideration and through systematic summary of the traditional predictive methods, the thesis analyzes some problems in traditional predictive methods and contradictions in the requirements of transforming development, which are presented in three aspects like the logic of single increment theory, the concept of extensive land development, rigidity-thinking of size controlling. Secondly, according to problems in traditional predictive methods and combining specific requirements of transforming development, the thesis raises a predictive and innovative way of thinking that includes dualistic thinking of predication, intensive development of land application, flexibility of size control. In the guidance of the thinking way, starting from two aspects of social development and ecological environment, it establishes a predictive method of the industrial land scale with the premise of ecological environment restriction and the dominant of social development requirements. Specifically speaking, it refers to five aspects such as establishing methods of scientific prediction, choosing land types of land application, grasping developing tendency of land application, drafting ranges of elastic index and introducing decisions of multi-cooperation. To prove the practicability of the predictive method, taking Wuzhong district of Suzhou city as an example, the thesis conducts an empirical research on three main industrial lands like industrial land, residential land and service industry land. In the end, aiming at the scientific and rational realization of development scale of industrial land, from the viewpoint of utilization of land, the thesis puts forward development planning strategies of city’s industrial land. Such strategies includes four aspects like strictly controlling the total amount of land for application, improving plan management of the new land for application, promoting optimal utilization of the stock land, enhancing allocation efficiency of land resource.