Ship Oil Spill Risk Evaluation In Port Area Based On Fuzzy Bayesian Network

With the rapid development of China’s economy and trade. Shipping, with its advantage of low freight and large volumes, take the main task of China’s goods importing and exporting, however, a series of ship oil spill accidents not only cause huge economic losses, but also brought serious influence on the marine ecological environment, fishery and tourism. Ship oil spill accidents of "7.16 explosion in Dalian" and "11.26 oil pipeline explosion in Qingdao" put people’s attention on port oil transportation safety again. Under this background, this paper based on the ship operation status, conducts a comprehensive identification of the factors affecting the ship oil spill in port, and builds a safety assessment model, in order to solve the problems in the present stage of our country’s port safety management.Based on the analysis of ship oil spill accidents in domestic and international ports and related statistics and literature, this paper takes the ship oil spill on its berthing and handling operation in port area as the research angle, combines theory analysis with empirical analysis, and qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. Firstly, identifies risk factors based on analysis on relative data and literatures, and a Bayesian Network structure diagram and the nodes’value ranges are established according to the causality of nodes variables; Secondly, conditional probability of each variable in the Bayesian Network is acquired by combining with Bayesian conditional probability model and the triangular fuzzy number approach; Based on this, the software GeNIe is used to compute accident probability of ship oil spill and to analyze sensitivity of risk factors; Finally, through the case study of our country’s coastal ports, the results show that the model is reasonable and effective, not only does it provides a theoretical basis to develop policies to strengthen the management of the port and ship management, but also verified the scientific and effective of the model to evaluate the ship oil spill risk on its berthing and handling operation in port area.