The Dynamic Analysis And Prediction Of Tourism Income Of Forest Park In Hunan Province

After 30 years of development,forest park has turned to be an important place for transformation and upgrading of forestry,resources and environmental protection, construction of ecological civilization and promoting green development.It’s an effective way to helping people who lives in the forest area shortening the gap between the poor and the the rich,promoting the economical social to have a sustainable development. There are 2948 forest parks in total in our nation up to 2013.The whole management area is about 17.48 million hectares.It has received about 489 million visitors.The tourism income has got up 49.11 billion.The healthy ecological environment, social and economic benefit is obvious to be seen.The research was guided by forest tourism,regional economics and the application of mathematics,using comparative analysis approach, Shift-Share Method and Grey-Markov theory forecast to dynamic analyze and predict the development and income of forest park tourism industry in Hunan Province.The article briefly presented the construction and research progress on forest park at home and abroad, and expounded the related theory and application,reviewed the status of the forest park construction and forest tourism industry in Hunan Province,systematically analyzed the provincial forest park tourism revenues in from 2004 to 2013,to make the objective evaluation of status and contribution of the provincial forest park in the position of the nation.The traditional static model and dynamic model of Shift-Share Method was used to carry on the rational analysis and evaluation as for the construction and development situation of provincial forest park tourism industry from 2009 to 2013.The essay made the predictions on the provincial forest park tourism income based on Grey-Markov theory forecast,and then researched the development trend of the forest park tourism and the adjustment direction of industrial structure,and also puts forward suggestion and countermeasures that provided the theoretical basis and decision-making reference for the realization of the sustainable development of the forest park tourism industry in Hunan Province.The main conclusions of the study was that forest park tourism income was in the relatively leading position in the nation and has increased in the stability of the whole,but the development speed is slightly lower than the national level.The proportion of forest park tourism income was floating between 3.28% and 6.39% of that in total income,but Contribution remain to be promoted. The forest park tourism income mainly based on sightseeing trips and ticket revenue in Hunan Province between 2009 and 2013.The ratio of the relative growth rate of Hunan Province to the whole nation was 1.53,which was greater than one.Structure effect index was 0.98 that was less than one,meanwhile less than the relative rate and competitive effect index.The total competitiveness deviation component was 51608.75,the competitive effect index was 1.56,which is more than one.The value indicated The forest park tourism revenue in Hunan Province generally has been increasing during the study periods.Forest park tourism has more advantages in respects of shares and competitiveness, but still in its infancy,the proportion of emerging industry was small.The industrial structure needs to upgrade.Development level of accommodation and entertainment of the tourism industry is low that was at a disadvantage.Other industries which Is closely related to forest tourism industry had great advantages on aspect of share, structure,and advantage,but it is still necessary to enhance competitiveness.Forest park tourism revenues in the next two years will maintain a positive steady rising trend,and is s expected to exceed 300 billion yuan for the first time in 2O23.The result showed that in the development of promoting forest park tourism industry,Adjusting measures to local conditions to exploit the forest tourism is the development direction featuring leisure hub,recreational sport and rural experience.The path for the project is optimizing economic structure,perfecting the system of forest tourism products,developing the industry chain extension,Integrating resources to build a brand and enhancing the level of management.