The Risk Management Research Of Grid Construction Project Based On Bayesian And ANP Theory

Along with the continuous development of our society and economy, the power grid construction project investment will smooth upgrade.In 2013, the China State Grid Corp has completed the power grid construction investment a lots.Such as above 59000km110(66)kV AC line,3.1million KVA substation capacity and 2210 kilometers DC line. Power grid construction projects always cost many investment and long cycle.Risk management of grid construction projects will not only help to improve their return on investment, but also increase lean management level of power grid construction projects.This article combing the risk management theory based on domestic and international risk management research. Research on four areas:grid construction project risk identification, the key risk identification, risk management evaluation and risk control.First, identify the risk of power grid construction projects at all stages of the construction process. Comparative of the applicability of the commonly used methods of risk identification, this article choice WBS-RBS comprehensive theory to identify risk factors; Secondly,identification key risk of power grid construction projects based on Bayesian network theory.Validated scientific of key risks identification and practicability of Bayesian network theory by empirical; thirdly,build power grid construction project risk management evaluation system from key risks.Propose the use of ANP model to carry out risk assessment of power grid construction projects management.Empirical analysis results of cases in three different regions show the reasonable evaluation of index system and methods;Finally, analyzed the grid construction project risk control processes, and proposed risk control measures base on the key risks.This article is based on the comprehensive risk factor recognition.Through the key risk identification of the risk factors for effective screening.Further to the key risk as the index to carry out risk assessment research.Finally puts forward the corresponding risk control measures.This article carried out the research on power grid construction project risk management. Not only help dig the risks inherent in grid construction projects,scientific improve risk management; But also help to enhance the ability to identify key risks, carry out accurate risk management, and enhance power grid construction projects Lean management level.