Research On Power Supply And Use Risk Index Optimization And Evaluation Model For Important Power Users

With the development of modern electricity technology, as the important pillar of social and economic development and lifeline of the city life development, power supply and use of important power users have faced with enormous risks and challenges.Based on the definition and classification of important power users, analyzis features and characteristics of the supply and use. On this basis, we have been put forward the 51 combination qualitative and quantitative power supply and use risk elements covering 10 aspects, then using rough set reduction theory, eliminated the redundant risk elements, build up the supply and user power risk index optimization system of important power users. In this paper, considering the uncertainty index attribute weight information, fuzziness,the external environment variability and risk evaluators attitude towards risk, break down the traditional assessment method.We give a new interval gray number comparation the size of the rules for the quantitative indicators, with the cloud model language evaluation, qualitative indicators quantified into quantitative evaluation value, integrated into a dynamic alternative reference point for the definition of mixed prospect theory evaluation index values, the difference by building maximization model, the objective to solve the index weight coefficient, build an improved gray target risk assessment model based on prospect theory. For a detailed description of the specific evaluation process model, by example, giving detailed steps and program results, and compared with traditional assessment method, demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of this method it provides a new idea and method for risk assessment of important power users...