| Rural credit cooperatives rural microcredit business, in solving the farmer’s capital needs, improve rural production mode of operation, increasing farmers income levels play a positive role. Rural microcredit, however, unique features, the rural credit cooperatives rural microcredit in business, not only face the risk of loan business commonly, also the special credit risk facing rural microcredit. Lead to the high default rate of rural credit cooperatives rural microcredit business, high non-performing loans. In reaction to the phenomenon, this article at home and abroad for reference, the farmers microfinance credit risk on the basis of relevant research results, the credit risk, this paper analyzes the factors which affect farmers microcredit.Basing on Jiaozuo of rural credit cooperatives in2011,2012farmers microcredit business relevant data for the sample, from the basic characteristics of peasant household, peasant household borrowing characteristics, the past credit status from three aspects of farmers, farmers microfinance credit risk for empirical research and Logit credit risk assessment model is established. The results indicate that the farmers borrowing rate, annual family income of farmers, farmers repayment history three factors have significant effects on farmers small loans default. Identification ability is good, and the model of training sample to determine the overall accuracy is80.4%, among them, to high-risk judgment accuracy reached73.1%, with81.7%accuracy for low-risk farmers judgment; Farmers from samples of forecast data to determine and found that the overall accuracy of the model at79.5%, for low-risk misjudgment rate below20%, judgment to high-risk farmers in the accuracy of74.1%. Logit model for evaluation of peasant household credit risk of rural credit cooperatives to provide certain reference significance. Finally, through the analysis of the result of the empirical research with the current situation of development of its rural credit cooperatives farmers microcredit, put forward to reduce the credit risks of the rural credit cooperatives farmers microcredit effective Suggestions, hope to be able to for the establishment of a sound rural financial environment, the sustainable development of the farmers microcredit business provides some practical help. |
