Research On Sustainability Assessment And Prediction Of Shandong Based On Index Of Pressure Between Human Activities And Environment

Resources and environment is the carrier and foundation of human social andeconomic development. Since the21st century, resources being plundered,environment being destructed and space being occupied reached an unprecedentedscale and conflict between human and environment became more and more serious.With the rapid advance of population growing, urbanization and industrialization, thedevelopment of China is increasingly constrained by resources and environment. Tostudy the evolution of relationship between human and environment, to assess andpredict the sustainability of man-land relationship areal system has great significance.The paper takes the theory of man-land relationship, man-land relationship arealsystem, sustainable development and eco-econ coordination development as a guide,sorts out the evolution of relationship between human and environment in Shandong,analyzes the status of it, and assesses the pressure condition of it by constructingindex system and index of pressure between human activities and environment. Theprediction of trend of man-land relationship over the next decade is done by themethods of grey prediction. At last, the paper proposes several suggestions ofsustainability development in Shandong. Overall, formed the following conclusions:(1)The evolution of man-land relationship of Shandong can be divided into twostages-the stage of before modern society evolved slowly and the stage of modernsociety evolved dramatically. The stage of before modern society also can be dividedinto two stages-the stage of original coordinate symbiosis in primitive society and thestage of slow fluctuant evolving in traditional agricultural society. The stage ofmodern society also can be divided into three stages-slight imbalance stage(1949-1977), prominent contradictions stage(1978-2000), and gradually coordinatedstage(2001-present).(2)Shandong has very large population, developed agriculture, abundant energy and minerals, and heavy industry. But it lacks resource of water and land, and itsenvironment is fragile. Shandong is a place having both land and sea and has a longhistory of foreign trade. Shandong is also rich of culture and history. Shandong nowhas some problems during development such as economies increased continuouslywhile the quality and structure need to upgrade, social indicators improved rapidlywhile the imbalance of urban and rural and gap between regions are still exist,excessive consumption and extensive using of resources and pollution ofenvironment.(3)From the point of time, the strength of human activities and pressure ofman-land relationship are becoming more and more severally. From the point ofspace, the strength of human activities in area of Jinan and its neighbor and east ofShandong is higher than other area of Shandong. The resources and environmentcarrying capacity of central and southwest of Shandong is lower than other areas ofShandong. Overall, the pressure of man-land relationship in Shandong is not veryserious. The pressure of man-land relationship in Jinan, Qingdao, jiaoji railway sideand south area of Shandong is higher than the other area of Shandong.(4)The strength of human activities and resources and environment carryingcapacity will both growing over the next10years. As the growth of human activitiesindex is faster than environment carrying capacity index, the pressure of man-landrelationship over next10years will become more and more intensive.(5)To slow down the growing speed of the pressure of man-land relationship,three aspects of measures should be taken. Firstly, the way and strength of action donefrom human for environment should be optimized. Secondly, the resources andenvironment carrying capacity should be improved. Thirdly, institution to promotesustainable development of man-land relationship should be perfected.