Low Carbon Development SD Model Of Chinese Shipping Industry Under International Carbon Reduction Mechanism

After the EU has announced to impose "aviation carbon tax" in Jan 1st,2012, it declared that it intends to involve sailing into the EU carbon emission trading system in July. It would impose "sailing carbon tax". Although many countries were opposed, there is no reason to doubt that the carbon tax system is an important measure to control climate changes internationally. By 2013 the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI)took effect as the first mandatory applicable to ships of all countries related to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it has been a settled situation to use market mechanism to control carbon emission in international shipping industry. Such trend will undoubtly have a significant impact on the Chinese shipping industry since China is a big country in the ship-building and shipping industry.This paper takes the above situations as a background. Based on a lot of reading on previous research, the method of system dynamic is chosen to solve the problem of low-carbon development of china’s shipping industry. Based on the principle and method of system dynamics, we analyze the boundary, features and cause-and-effect relationships between the elements of low-carbon development system in Chinese shipping industry. We then establish the SD (System Dynamic) model for dissection of the systemic multiple feedback mechanisms and the interaction processes between various elements in the system. When making policy simulation, we take emission reduction path from three angles as technical, operational and marketing, and choose technology investment, slow down speed, improve energy consumption structure and take carbon taxation as typical emission reduction measures to make emission reduction simulation. Eventually, with the specialized software vensim, we completed the model checking. The simulation results show that, properly slowing down cruising speed, can get substantial emission reduction at the cost of a small economic loss; Improve the energy consumption structure, in the short term economic and environmental benefits are not very significant, but its long-term effects can not be excluded in reducing emissions, and reasonable determination of carbon tax with complement of low-carbon subsidies could lead to good efficacy of emission reduction while ensuring economy’s healthy development. Each of this three emission reduction path is independent, but they are also complementary. Only if we make full use of each approach, can we achieve the best emission reduction.