Research About The Influence Of Monetary Policy On The Price Of China’s Real Estates

In recent years, the real estate industry is gradually developed into the pillarindustry of China’s national economy, prices are too high or downturn in the realestate market will have an impact on the national economy, abnormal fluctuations inhouse prices will affect economic growth, monetary stability and even social stability.The real estate asset as a special commodity is greatly influenced by monetary policy,so it is particularly important and meaningful to study the effects of monetary policyhave on house prices.In this paper, the author analyzed the relationship between house prices and themonetary policy factors firstly, then divided the monthly data from2003to2014intotight period and lax steady period, explained division basis and regulation effect ofthe two period; In empirical research, this author used variance decompositionmeasurement methods such as ADF, Cointegration, Granger, Impulse responsefunction and Variance decomposition, to conduct tests on real estate prices monetarypolicy factors and of the two period, finally the author putted forward policysuggestions.The results show that: there exists a long-term stable relationship between themonetary policy factors and house prices and the four factors of monetary policy allhave contribution to real estate price fluctuations and the money supply is the largest;The effect of tight monetary policy(2003-2008) is more obvious than lax steadystage(2008-2014); Monetary policy has a certain lag and the lag of quantitativemonetary policy tools is shorter than price-based monetary policy tools and houseprices will also impact on monetary policy; To price-based currency policy, the effectsduring tight stage is more obvious than lax steady stage and to quantitative monetarypolicy, the effects during lax steady stage is more obvious than lax steady stage.The main innovations: the paper studied a number of variables on real estateprices especially the deposit reserve ratio and the selected data in a larger time spanfrom2003to2014is divided into tightening and lag steady stage; The paper used avariety of testing methods for the two periods, thus improving the test accuracy of theresults during the empirical analysis.To study the relationship between real estate prices and monetary policy canprovide a reference basis for the macro-control of the country, and it is also of great importance to promote the development of the national economy and maintain socialstability.