Emergency Decision-making In Engineering Project Based On Prospect Theory

In recent years, engineering project emergencies occur frequently and have caused adverse effects on the enterprises and society, so it is urgent to improve the emergency management ability of engineering projects. As the core part of emergency management, emergency decision-making plays a decisive role on enhancing the emergency management level of engineering projects. Therefore, how to make an emergency decision scientifically is an issue which is worthy to be studied deeply.The paper takes emergency decision-making in engineering projects as the object of the research, and then proposes two methods for engineering projects:an emergency decision-making method which is based on prospect theory and decision adjustment method which is based on prospect theory and score function.Firstly, the paper introduces background and significance of the research, summarizes international scholars’achievements on emergency decision-making and decision adjustment, and outlines the framework and content of the research. In addition, the paper presents engineering projects emergency theory, prospect theory, interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and interval numbers in detail.Secondly, for the problem of emergency decision-making in engineering projects, especially when the weights of the criterias are partially unknown, the paper proposes an analysis method which is based on prospect theory and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets, and then describes the steps of the method in detail. Prospect theory can describe the decision influence caused by the decision maker’s psychological behavior characteristics. And interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets can effectively deal with the information’s fuzziness and uncertainty during the process of ermergency decision-making in engineering projects. Combining prospect theory and interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets together, the analysis method is used for ermergency decision-making in engineering projects, and it is conducive to keep the scientificalness and rationality of the results, which can be verified by a numerical example.Thirdly, the development of engineering project emergency is uncertain, it’s necessary to adjust the emergency plan timely in emergency plan implementation process. For the problem of emergency decision adjustment in engineering projects, the paper puts forward an emergency decision adjustment method which is based on prospect theory and score function. Based on the analysis of existing score functions’deficiencies, the paper proposes a new one which is not only considers information’s fuzziness and uncertainty during the process of emergency decision adjustment, but also takes the relative merits and demerits of the alternatives under the environment into account. Furthermore, the best adjustment alternative can be selected by combining the new score function and prospect theory. And then, the validity and rationality of the method can be proved by numerical examples.Finally, the paper concluzes the research results of this study, and forecasts the directions and contents of subsequent research.