Research On Prevention Of Moral Hazard In Logistics Service Supply Chain

In recent years, with the continuous development of the national economy, people’s living standard is increasing day by day, and the family dietary structure has being generally improved. Dairy products as an important nutritional food in People’s Daily life, its consumption group is expanded year by year. But the dairy safety incidents happened in recent years have seriously impacted on the domestic consumer confidence in dairy products. Raw milk as the necessary raw materials for the production of dairy products, its quality will directly affect the integrity of the dairy products production enterprise and the health of consumers. As a result, the original milk procurement becomes extremely important, and the effective risk management for the purchase of raw milk is of great significance for management and development of dairy production corporation.Based on the analysis of Chinese dairy consumption and the raw milk production status, characteristics, on the basis of based on risk early warning theory, according to the characteristics of the raw milk purchase, expand raw milk to the dairy products production enterprise procurement risk analysis of the system. Determine the dairy products production enterprise raw milk purchase risk causes and affecting factors, and analysis the performance characteristics of the raw milk purchase risk. On this basis, combination the qualitative method and quantitative method, from the original milk the internal environment and external environment of procurement, built a consists of13warning index raw milk dairy products production enterprise procurement risk early warning index system. Through the expert scoring method to construction of risk early warning index set, and use principal component analysis to filtered observation index. On the basis of the goal early warning index system, based on the Logistic regression model, build the dairy products production enterprise of discrete choice raw milk procurement risk early warning model. By using the methods of statistical analysis, feature extraction of indicator data for processing, eventually determine the risk level.Based on the above qualitative and quantitative analysis, determine the dairy products production enterprise raw milk purchase risk early warning alert degree, and put forward the plan of warning degrees at all levels of response. Set an example of a company in Harbin, and take the empirical study of the raw milk procurement risk. According to the results of the empirical research, proposed the corresponding risk management measures of the supplier risk, the quality risk, the market risk and the man-made risk, can effectively control the risk of raw milk purchase of the dairy products production enterprise.