Research On Financial Risk Warning Model And Identification Method Of Milk Supply Enterprises

Financial risk early warning and identification is the core of financial risk management of market-oriented enterprises.In the fierce market competition of the socialist economic system in the new era,it is also the basis for the sustainable development of enterprises,which is related to the survival of enterprises.It is also the key factor for the stable and healthy development of China's dairy industry and the real competitiveness of the international market.Due to the good development of China's dairy industry in recent years,there are many large and small dairy enterprises,which leads to the lack of enough targeted research samples.This paper investigates a large number of data for this problem,and the research results for the actual situation of dairy enterprises are well combined with the central point of this paper,so this study can make up for the relevant research Deficiencies.In addition,from the perspective of China's sustainable economic development,dairy industry is one of the pillar industries.For dairy industry,especially for dairy enterprises,to prevent financial crisis from the source means that they can cope with a variety of complex economic situations,so as to win market competition.Based on the theory of financial risk control and the study of relevant materials,this paper establishes reasonable and effective early warning indicators,which is also the premise and key to the effectiveness of financial crisis early warning model.Through the review of previous studies,it can be found that the financial risk early warning models constructed by scholars are generally biased towards financial enterprises or industrial enterprises,so the models constructed or selected are not suitable for milk source enterprises.There are a few industries similar to milk source enterprises,such as the model of food industry,which are more or less defective,such as the selected indicators and models are not appropriate,Or some of its parameters do not take into account and so on.Therefore,based on the study of the collected literature on the financial crisis early warning model,in accordance with the principles of scientificity,comprehensiveness and feasibility,and based on the actual situation of milk source enterprises,combined with the characteristics of GLBcompany,this paper selects sample data to improve the accuracy of the data analysis results,and then carries out the preliminary screening of indicators.In order to ensure the applicability,according to the requirements,this paper These indexes are tested by normality,function,significance,factor analysis,optimized early warning indexes,and determined the final explanatory variables.On the basis of summarizing the relevant literature and theories at home and abroad,this paper carefully combs the current situation of financial risk early warning and identification of the company,and further analyzes the existing problems in financial risk management.The core of this paper is to build a financial risk early warning model through logistic,analyze the situation of T-1,T-2 and T-3 years,and get the analysis results.The results will be screened and tested.In the early warning model,the data is divided into learning set and inspection set,and the data sets of 74 companies are divided into learning set and inspection set.The four companies with financial problems are used as learning set to build the model,and the other 70 companies are used as inspection set to verify the model.According to the results of model validation,the three-year test results are 100%,97.6% and 98.5% respectively.The empirical study of this paper finds that the overall prediction effect of the model is good.Finally,this paper combines the model and the above problem analysis,through the GLB milk source enterprise financial early warning model constructed by SPSS,analyzes the identified variables of its population optimization management,performance appraisal management,cost control management and industry-oriented management.This paper puts forward the purpose of reducing the financial risk by constructing the activity-based costing system in enterprises,strengthening the overall budget,improving the performance appraisal management system,reasonably controlling the feed cost,optimizing the population structure,reasonably making the product price adjustment plan and effectively using the government dividend.