Research On System Dynamic Mechanism Of Theairlines Sustainable Safety

Currently, while deciding to introduce aircrafts, open new flights and expand the scopeof business for airlines, it’s more starting in the perspective of economic operators andignoring the safety implications. And this causes the imbalance between safety anddevelopment. The sustainable safety puts forward higher requirements to airlines. To realizesustainable safe development of airlines, it hardly needs to research in-depth and analysissystemically of the elements of sustainable safety and development system and their feedbackrelationships, and to analysis and study the internal dynamical mechanism.Airlines sustainable safety and development is a dynamical and complex feedbacksystem. In dealing with such issues, system dynamics has many advantages. Based on thefactor analysis of airline sustainable safety and development, a systems archetype called“Growth and Underinvestment” was conducted applying systems theory. Then on the basis ofcausality feedback loop, a flow diagram of the system was established by applying systemdynamics method and with the help of the software tool of “VENSIM DSS”. This systemdynamics model describes the complex feedback relationships between the airline sustainablesafety and development. And the model provides a "strategy and tactics laboratory" forairlines decision-makers.In order to test and simulate the model,“A” airline is taken as a case study. And thesimulation results show that:“fare adjustment coefficient” is the most sensitive constant toairlines’ development, and “safety investment elasticity coefficient” is the most sensitivesecurity constant to airlines’ safety. The fleet size and passenger traffic of “A” airlinecontinues to increase rapidly before2023, and subsequently entered a stable state. Whilesafety guarantee level of airlines begin to decline from2015. Airlines operational growth andsafety deficiencies form a contradiction. Increasing the proportion of safety investment,airline safety level fall can be delayed, and will secure a more balanced level of safetyguarantee.