Study On Food Supply Chain Anti-Risk Model Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, China’s food safety problems happen frequently, has caused a certain degree of social panic. Food safety problems mainly comes from the food supply chain, one of the main methods to solve the problem of food safety is to control the food supply chain risk, improve the food supply chain’s ability to resist risks, so as to reduce the incidence of risk, and ensure food safety. This paper uses evolutionary game theory, system dynamics theory and vensim simulation method, started with the analysis of the characteristics of the food supply chain system and system dynamics characteristics of risk management, consider the food supply chain risk models based on the two perspective:scattered subject and concentrated subject.This paper analyzes the cause of the food supply chain "bullwhip effect" and the relationship with food supply chain risk management, using system dynamics method to establish the effect diagram and dynamic flow diagram of the food supply chain system inventory control system, study the information technology’s influence on the food supply chain "bullwhip effect" for "used in road inventory information" and "supply chain information sharing" two kinds of cases respectively based on the dynamics modeling and simulation analysis, it is concluded that the use of modern information technology can effectively reduce the "bullwhip effect" of demand amplification effect, and then puts forward the food supply chain risk management mode based on information sharing. In the fourth section of the article, we establish a evolutionary game model between a supplier and a production processors in the food supply chain based on strategies of "sharing" and "not shared", join the "government punishment" factors at the same time, prove the existence of two kinds of equilibrium (sharing, sharing) and (not shared, not shared) under the assumption, and when the government penalties is greater than its excess return of choose "not shared", there is only one kind of equilibrium (sharing, sharing). Then the system dynamics model of game process is established, the relationship of the influence factors and the result of the game is simulated by using vensim software, the simulation results show that in the food supply chain information sharing game, the probability of the two sides choose "sharing" is influenced by the cost of sharing, profit by sharing and enterprise’s information absorption and overflow capacity, at the same time, the government penalties greater, the will of both sides towards sharing policy greater. The article also puts forward three main concentration risk model:the chain with core enterprise as the main body, with risk management within the group as the main body and the third party agencies outside the chain as the main body, analyze their operation process and the advantages and disadvantages respectively, points out that the panel in the chain as the main body of the model can overcome the lack of other two models, is a better risk model. The research has great significance of grasping the food supply chain operation process from the overall, identifying the weak links of the supply chain, increasing the coordination degree of the whole system, the degree of information sharing and the efficiency and effectiveness of entire supply chain, reducing the vulnerability of food supply chain, so as to avoid the food supply chain risk, and ensure food safety.