Guangxi’s Carbon Emission Trends Based On Optimal Economic Growth

Our country is in a stage of economic development in transition, energy conservation become a new opportunity for economic transformation. It has important practical significance to make effective emission reduction measures for the development of provinces in the further,if we can deeply understand the influence factors of energy consumption and carbon emissions of the provinces,Allocation of responsibilities needs a comprehensive energy conservation a variety of factors, in addition to the total economic development of the region but also have the opportunity to consider the various regions of the fair, also taking into account technological advances and adjust the structure of energy consumption areas. From the reality of economic development we found that if technological progress is relatively strong capacity in some regions, then the principle of balance in regional development, to reduce the overall level of carbon emissions have a certain role. Therefore, in this case, countries need targeted research trends in emissions each administrative district to serve as a basis for measuring carbon emissions districts capabilities.Guangxi is located in the South China coast, coal shortage of oil airless let Guangxi is facing shortage of energy self-sufficiency rate in economic development, and coal as the main energy consumption structure and too rigid; at the same time close to the Pearl River Delta, Guangxi, and as "China-ASEAN" Exchanges in the heart, location advantages highlighted, so the Guangxi study has some uniqueness. For these reasons, the paper chose to study in Guangxi region as an attempt to explore the path of economic growth under optimal energy consumption and carbon emissions, Guangxi, providing feasibility analysis and implementation of energy structure adjustment under the control of its carbon emissions.Research of this paper is to explore the path of economic growth under optimal if there are problems in Guangxi energy and carbon emissions peak and drawn. Firstly, the study of the economic optimal control in the absence of carbon emissions constraint problem:through some series of growth models, utility models derived ultimately got the energy intensity and optimal economic growth rate between the two in Guangxi relationship. Then, the article about the economic growth rate and the energy intensity of the model to estimate the optimal path of economic growth in Guangxi and corresponding energy demand and carbon emission trends to explore. In the development of inquiry, this article is not only based on historical data of the reference scenario forecasts, predicting further after deduction of industrial restructuring. It was found in Guangxi in the future course of economic development in the presence of carbon emissions peak.2050 will be a peak carbon emissions under the baseline scenario, the peak emissions peak 134.82Mt C; if we consider industrial restructuring, peak carbon emissions peak 117.55Mt C, the peak will be reduced 14.69 percent from the peak period will be 2050 to 2045 appeared in advance. Through comparative analysis, after adjustment of industrial structure, the cumulative period from 2015 to 2055 the GDP is estimated to reduce the 4 trillion yuan, emissions will be reduced 4788.89Mt C, the opportunity cost of emission reduction is estimated to be 0.8352 ten thousand yuan per toe C. These data raise the reference in the development of future Guangxi reduction plan. However, the face of national planning for carbon emissions, also needs to be considered for reducing carbon emissions intensity States. This paper further integration of R&D intensity, emissions intensity and energy intensity forecast endogenous carbon emission trends and economic growth path under carbon intensity control. Final results showed that carbon intensity under control, peak carbon emissions will occur earlier, the peak value decreases. Compared to the absence of carbon emission control, in carbon intensity control, lower carbon intensity control, technical progress carbon emission intensity compared to control high. Technological advances to reduce energy intensity has a positive effect can be improved in the past high energy consumption and high pollution, extensive mode of economic development, ecological economy is of great significance.Subsequently, the article on model carbon intensity control sensitivity analysis. It was found that, first, the corresponding value of the optimal path to raise the ceiling in the R&D intensity has been significantly improved, but limited force to improve the R&D intensity ceiling; the second is the social planner after the R&D intensity ceiling is raised there will be more emission reduction measures reserves, to take effective measures to reduce emissions of time will also be delayed; three carbon intensity path will be developed to improve the impact strength of the cap, the performance of carbon emission intensity after the first lift, the former emergency relief, in the fall Late speed. Fourth, if we raise the upper limit of the level of research and development. So, effective mitigation measures will be subject to the influence of hysteresis after emission intensity index decreased significantly time will be delayed, and therefore carbon emissions accordingly been substantial. Finally, for the future of energy saving Guangxi policy recommendations.