The Simulation Research And Policy Choice Of Energy Consumption, Carbon Emissions And Economic Growth: A Dynamic CGE Approach

Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth constitute acomplex system. Among energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth，exists a dialectical relationship that connect with each other, restrict eachother.Social progress and economic development needs of the growing energyindustry as the support,but at the expense of the environment, energy developmentcan not be sustained；How to achieve China’s sound and rapid economic sustainabledevelopment in the energy consumption and carbon emissions under the doubleconstraint is a very real issue. How to achieve China’s sound and rapid economicsustainable development under the double constraint of energy consumption andcarbon emissions is a very real issue.As largest developing country of the world,China is in the process of actively promoting the economic transformation andupgrading and harmonious development of economy, society and environment.Wemust seek a road that can guide the coordinated development of sustainable use ofenergy, environmental protection and economic growth to make china’s economywithstand the double challenge of energy and environmental protection.The paper in accordance with technical route of “Literature review-situationanalysis-theoretical modeling-Policy Simulation-policy recommendations”.First,we systematically combed the pertinent literature about the study of the relationshipbetween Economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth and energyconsumption, as well as energy consumption and carbon emissions and therelationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth inchina.We discussed some literature about computable general equilibrium modelof energy and environment and decided the research thought that using analysistools—dynamic computable general equilibrium, to analysis welfare effect in socialeconomy of policy about energy and environment.Second, we conclude and summarize China’s current situation of energyconsumption, carbon emissions and economic growth and explored further therelationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth andenergy consumption, energy consumption and carbon emissions,as well as thequantitative relationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economicgrowth in China. The paper studied the effect of energy consumption to economic growth by using the smooth transfer of regression model.The results proved thatthere is a nonlinear relationship and n obvious the dynamic relationship of areasystem transformation between energy consumption and economic growth in China.Nonparametric regression model is used to measure Multi-inflexions Kuznets curvemodel of economic growth and environmental quality in China. The results showthat different areas have different environmental fitting curve and the traditionalinverted "U" type curve is basically not applicable in our country,in other words,theconclusions of paper support that the environmental Kuznets curve does not exist inchina.Compared with the traditional unsupported conclusion,the paper, in addition tothe "U" type curve and the "N" type curve, obtains the linear model and the "M"curve. LMDI decomposition method is applied to the analysis of the change of CO2emissions due to the use of China ’s primary energy from2000to2009.Researchshows that the change of energy structure have an weak negative effects on thegrowth of carbon emissions, and the change of efficiency of energy showedsignificant negative effects on the contribution rate to the carbon emissions in thisphrase of china. Then the paper used Toda-Yamamoto test program to studyquantitatively on causality among China’s energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth.of which results show that economic growth and energyconsumption are unidirectional Granger cause of CO2emissions,that is tosay,economic growth and the increase of energy consumption can lead to an increasein CO2emissions,but not vice versa,and there is a two-way Granger causalitybetween energy consumption and economic growth.Then, On the basis of the connotation of the3E system’s coordinateddevelopment, the author selected28indicators from three aspects,namely energy,economy and environment to build the energy-economy-environment evaluationindex system of coordination (3e) system.According to latest statistics of3Eindicator of30provinces in2011,the paper conducted a longitudinal comparisonthrough the empirical and the top five areas are guangdong, jiangsu, Beijing,shandong and zhejiang in system coordination degree.In general,3E systemcoordination is generally not high in our country while regional coordination degreeis unbalanced.The paper used the method of literature research，taking the economicallydeveloped degree,regional representative and the availability of data as the criteriaof sample’s selection,to conduct a contrastive analysis for policy about energy savingand emission reduction environmental Energy—policy that relate to carbon tax， research and development of energy saving and fiscal policy about energyconservation and emission reduction,providing realistic background and basis forthe next step—policy simulation and interpretation of result of the dynamic CGEresearch on effect of energy and environment policy.We learn from foreign advanced theory and technology of CGEmodel,Constructing dynamic CGE model which can reflect the coordinateddevelopment of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth andreflect the degree of the impact of policy about energy environment on energyconservation, economic growth and environmental protection. In this paper,we studiedcarbon tax,collection of carbon tariffs, changes in energy technology,energy-efficient fiscal policy and other aspects,setting the the scene of simulationstudy about the energy and environmental policy.,conducting simulation studiesabout the coordinated development of Energy consumption, carbon emissions andeconomic growth,Measuring the impact of the implementation of the energy andenvironmental policies on macroeconomic variables, industrial development, energyconservation, employment etc. The result showed that the degree of influence that thecollection of carbon tax on China’s macro-economic variables, industrial development,energy conservation and employment showed changing tendency in different directionand different size while tax rate and the pattern of carbon tax collection and taxrebates is different. On the whole, pattern that spending the carbon tax revenue forsubsidies to individual consumers have the best influence on socio-economy andenergy environment.Therefore, the pattem can be considereded when the stateformally implemented carbon tax case in the future.The carbon tariffs become a hugechallenge in China, even an obstacles to the short-term economic growth.But from thepoint of the development of China’s low-carbon economy,and sustainabledevelopment, it is undoubtedly an external drive to China’s economicdevelopment.It can speed up the upgrading of industrial structure in China to someextent, restrain the carbon emissions China’s enterprises, enhance the awareness ofenvironmental protection. Therefore, the "carbon tariff" challenge can be anopportunity to achieve sustainable development for China.Changes in energytechnologies key macroeconomic variables can promote the key macroeconomicvariables significantlyin the short-term and long-term.Compared with the numberof forecast period,GNP, residents’ welfare, consumption, investment, governmentsupport, import and export of has a certain degree of positive deviation. The greaterthe magnitude of changes in technology, the greater the positive deflection. The development and application of technologies in energy use can play a good role forenergy saving.The total factor productivity growth due to financial investment ofgovernment for energy saving can promote the country’s economic growth and has asignificant positive effect on stimulating consumption and expanding domesticdemand, increasing import and export, promoting the adjustment of industrialstructure, and increasing national income etc.We can reduce energy consumptionand carbon emissions effect of the whole society by incentive effects that financialinvestment by government have on Energy conservation.Finally,in terms of the problems that may arise during the execution ofenvironmental policy,the paper propose scientific and theoretical basis and targetedresponse options to provide a scientific basis for decision-making departmentsto develop and improve policy system.