Study On Total-Factor Energy Efficiency Of The Cities In Jiangsu Province And Scenario Forecasts

As an exhaustible strategic resource, important factor of production and essential subsistence, energy plays an important role in terms of a country’s economic development and environmental protection. Like capital and labor, energy has become the basic elements of an economic system. Cities are the most concentrated area of human economic activities and the largest body of energy consumption with more than 75% of total energy consumption. The supply and demand, the structure and the use efficiency of energy all have significant impacts on the sustained, rapid and healthy development of an economic system. But now, the cities in China face many energy problems such as contradictions of the supply and demand, unreasonable structure and low efficiency of energy. On the background of those problems, this paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis model and Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System model to explore the cities’ energy problems of Jiangsu Province. The study has important theoretical and practical significances.Firstly, the paper uses non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) model of "multiple input-multiple output" and an extended environmental production function with new pollutant emissions to measure the total factor energy efficiency of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province during the 2000-2012 year. Then, we use Malmquist index to decompose the total factor energy efficiency into technical efficiency and technological progress index.The results of DEA show that the total factor energy efficiency of cities in southern region (Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang) are close to 1, the values of cities in soviet region (Nantong, Yangzhou, Taizhou) have a mean of 0.86, lower than southern region, the values of cities in northern region (Suqian, Huai’an, Yancheng, Lianyungang, Xuzhou) are the lowest, with an average of 0.75. The decomposition of total factor energy efficiency results show that technical efficiency and technological progress index in the cities’ of southern region and soviet region are higher, indicating that these cities have achieved the movement of optimal production frontier and improvement of technical level, and cities’ of northern region haven’t obtained the improvements.On the basis of the results of the DEA, we use DEA-Tobit two-stage approach to analyze factors that affect the energy efficiency of the whole external environmental factors. The regression results show that the level of economic, industrial structure, energy structure and technical level have varying degrees of impact on total factor energy efficiency. And the effects are significant at 5% level of economic level, industrial structure and technological level.Then, we establish LEAP-Jiangsu model (LEAP, the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System), setting the baseline scenario and policy scenarios. And we set parameter for each scenario based on the actual situation of Jiangsu Province to predict demand of energy and emissions of environmental pollution of Jiangsu Province in 2012-2050.Finally, according to the conclusion and the situation of Jiangsu Province, this paper proposes appropriate policy recommendations. This paper suggest that we should continue to optimize the industrial structure, improve the proportion of tertiary industry, and exert advantage of the tertiary industry for energy saving. Besides, the government should vigorously support clean energy to achieve substantial adjustments of the energy structure, and reduce energy consumption and emissions of carbon through education and advocacy to improve the awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection of whole society. The last, we should increase technological investment to achieve technological progress and technological innovation. Then we will reduce carbon emissions by technology.