The Research On Volatility Growth Factors Of Aquatic Products Trade Between China And ASEAN

Today China’s economy is heading for the new state, positive structural adjustment is changing. China and the Association of South-east Asian Nations(ASEAN) are advocating mutual reciprocity and mutual benefit principle, we are paying great efforts on implementing the idea of the "Silk Road Economic Area",to attach the bilateral trade and economic development important target. China and ASEAN countries enjoy a long coastline and rich water resources. Aquaculture is one of the important economic branch of Marine Economy. Developing bilateral trade of aquatic products is fitted to jointly build "Marine Silk Road" of development needs. As an important part of economic cooperation area in the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN, aquatic products trade deserves to be the national common attention.Throughout China and ASEAN economic, aquatic products trade cooperation has been doing since the mid-1990 s. Grasp the new situation of economic transition with the "10 + 1" context framework within CAFTA, China and ASEAN aquatic products trade is proportion increasing year by year, replacing the market share of other trade regions. From 1996 to 2013, bilateral trade of aquatic products is still to continue growth and developing gradually, but the growth rate showed fluctuation; China’s aquatic products trade with several key countries in ASEAN has appeared the wave.Trade markets and varieties are too concentrate in short term.First of all, divided year1996 to year 2013 into five stages, on the basis of the Asian financial crisis, China’s WTO accession, bilateral signature on free trade area and other series of big economic events which affected bilateral trade. With constant market share model(CMS) as the research method, by UN COMTRADE data of aquatic products bilateral trade between China and ASEAN countries, trade volatility growth effect research is respectively to be done from import part and export part. Analysis the demand of the lateral scale effect, the trade structure effect and competitiveness effect on different states, and then compare the contribution rate of primary and secondary factors. Found that including market structure and product structure, trade structure is the weaknesses factor of import and export trade. Secondly, combining objective factors, through the extension gravity model to figure out possible external causes. The simulation results show that the difference such as economic level, geographical location advantages, population and even tariff adjustment or non- tariff barriers are all belong to the external conditions which effected volatility growth. And then from real market angle, make a conclusion that price, security, species diversity, and even family income and consumption preference, etc.,these individual subjective and objective factors all make a difference with consumer purchasing chooses when faced with importedLast contact with the current situation, stood in the macro and micro two aspects respectively, puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations, emphasis that trade structure adjustment should be put first place in the future’s aquatic products industry transformation and upgrading. Need to grasp the consumer demand by information from aquatic products trading center.