Analysis Of China’s Terms Of Trade For Aquatic Products With RCEP Partner Countries And Its Influencing Factors

The international trade of agricultural products is an important measure to ensure the stable production and supply of grain and important agricultural products in China.In2023,the No.1 central document of the Central Government clearly proposed "giving play to the role of international trade of agricultural products,and deeply implementing the diversified import strategy of agricultural products".In recent years,although China’s total agricultural product trade has achieved rapid growth,it has overall shown prominent problems such as weak competitiveness,low self-sufficiency rate,and widening trade deficit.The long-term deterioration of trade terms is not conducive to the high-quality development of industries.Aquatic products are an important component of agricultural products,and improving the terms of trade for aquatic products plays a very important role in improving the trade benefits of agricultural products.On January 1,2022,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)officially came into effect,bringing huge development opportunities to China’s aquatic product trade.Studying the changes and influencing factors in the terms of trade of aquatic products between China and RCEP countries is of great significance in helping China improve agricultural production efficiency,increase the added value of agricultural products,and obtain more trade benefits.This article is divided into six chapters.The first chapter is an introduction,mainly introducing the research background and significance,reviewing previous literature,proposing research ideas,innovations,and shortcomings;Chapter 2 introduces the relevant concepts of terms of trade and theoretically analyzes the influencing factors and mechanisms of terms of trade;Chapter 3 analyzes the market structure of China’s aquatic product trade with RCEP countries from three dimensions: overall structure,national market share structure,and commodity category structure.Chapter 4 introduces the theoretical knowledge and calculation methods of price index,calculates China’s aquatic product trade terms index with RCEP countries from different perspectives,and analyzes the characteristics of changes;Chapter 5 is the empirical research section,based on the gravity model,establishing a multiple linear regression model to measure the linear relationship between trade terms and control variables,and providing analysis and explanation.The sixth chapter is countermeasures and suggestions.Based on the research conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed from three levels:government,industry,and enterprise.The main conclusions of the study are as follows: firstly,the trade situation of aquatic products between China and RCEP partner countries is not optimistic,mainly due to the narrowing of trade surplus,unreasonable market structure,low degree of product diversification,and low added value of products,resulting in a deteriorating trend in trade terms.Secondly,theoretically,changes in economic development level,free trade agreements,labor productivity,and exchange rates can all affect the supply and demand relationship,thereby affecting the terms of trade.Thirdly,the increase in China’s per capita GDP,RCEP countries’ per capita GDP,and exchange rates is conducive to improving China’s terms of trade for aquatic products;The FTA dummy variable,China’s agricultural labor productivity,and RCEP country’s agricultural labor productivity all have varying degrees of negative impacts on China’s terms of trade for aquatic products.However,these factors exhibit different impact effects between countries with high and low economic levels.