Analysis On The Foreign Trade Growth Pattern Conversion In Tianjin

As one of the earliest open cities, Tianjin’s foreign economic cooperation and trade have been in a leading position in the China. Both the quantity and increments has made great development, the foreign trade development provides the solid foundation and the safeguard to the domestic economy.There are many problems in foreign trade develop patten, such as:high level foreign trade dependence degree,long-term structural problems, foreign trade development overly rely on the low cost, low technology and low added value,lay more stress on foreign companies and the processing trade. Thus, the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade development has become a top target of Tianjin.This article elaborated the connotation and extension of foreign trade development pattern, and build the basic theory framework of foreign trade development pattern change. By reviewing the traditional classic theory of international trade and open economics, we can provides the theory basis for path selection of foreign trade development transformation. At the same time, using published data to analyze the foreign trade development status, foreign trade dependency and trade structure of Tianjin. And then reveal the characteristics of the conversion of the foreign trade development pattern in Tianjin.This article established the index system to evaluate the conversion level of foreign trade development pattern in Tianjin. It is based on the data from 1990 to 2011, and introduced 12 indicators such as value-added ratio of processing trade, the proportion of new technology export,foreign trade dependency, employment in export industries, energy consumption per unit GDP, industrial waste gas emissions intensity, the industrial wastewater emissions intensity, the strength of industrial solid waste generated, general trade proportion, the proportion of domestic enterprises import and export growth etc.. Principal component analysis method has been used to evaluate the conversion level index of foreign trade development in different years in Tianjin, and suggestions has been given to raise the level of foreign trade development.By using multiple linear regression method and the macroscopic data during 1990-2011, empirical analysis has been made to identify the macro factors which influence foreign trade development of Tianjin. Research results show that the technology progress, industrial structure, the export market diversification, the average wage level of foreign trade industry have a positive impact on foreign trade development conversion level index, exchange rate, the capital increase speed, the foreign direct investment, balance of trade, per capita GDP increase rate of Tianjin have a negative impact on foreign trade development conversion level index.