The Theoretical And Empirical Study On China's Foreign Trade Development Pattern Conversion

Since reform and opening-up, China's foreign trade has made considerable progress. In 2009, China's import and export trade has been ranked the second in the world.From the view of trade scale, our country has really become a stronger foreign trade country. However, from the view of trade structure, mode of trade and trade environment, China's foreign trade still faces increasingly grim situations that include.more fragile basis of the growth, relatively extensive mode of growth and worsen trade environment.Therefore, China's foreign trade development pattern need change and create conditions for sustainable development.This paper firstly introduces the new theory of economic growth and the theory of competitive advantage and sustainable development and scientific development, which provide theoretical basis for the conversion of foreign trade development pattern, and then describes the development of China's foreign trade which analyses the problems of foreign trade development and indicates the direction of the conversion on the foreign trade development pattern. Secondly, according to relative principles and the methodology of selecting indexes, this paper sets up the system of evaluating indexes on the foreign trade development pattern which covers five levels including quantity,structure,comprehensive benefits,sustainable development and trade competitiveness indexes that total number is 39.Thirdly, by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), this paper uses the empirical analysis of different periods and different regions of the conversion extent of foreign trade development pattern, which is in order to get the comprehensive evaluation of the situation from a full range of vertical and horizontal views.The empirical study results show that:during 1995-2000, foreign trade scale index was increased in a stable condition, reflecting that China's foreign trade maintained a good size and speed of development of foreign trade; trade structure indexes have optimized fluctuantly with the weakness compared with the quantity growth;comprehensive benefits indexes have gradualyl increased, but the overall efficiency is still small especially for large international financial crisis,the degree of dependence on foreign trade is higher and leads tolow ability to resist risks; foreign sustainable development indexes are not obvious upward trend, reflecting the road to sustainable development of China's foreign trade is the arduous task, resources and environment are seriously damaged, eco-efficiency has a serious decline; trade competitiveness indexes have a smaller range of improvement including technological innovation and trade competitiveness directly constraint to enhance foreign trade competitiveness.From the empirical results of conversion of all the regional f oreign trade development pattern, scale, efficiency and competitiveness indexes in the eastern region are higher than the Central and western region, but the effect of western resources and environment index is wellest, the central region followed, the eastern region is the worst, Guangdong province and Jiangsu province's foreign trade development have large scale, reflecting the uneven development of China's foreign trade.On the basis of the theoretical and empirical research, based on the guidance of scientific concept of development, China should improve the optimization of the trade structure on the basis of quantity growth, these measures includes :cultivate independent brands, enhance the technological innovation, increase the value-added products, and improve the international competitiveness of products,establish and improve the innovative mechanisms to enhance human capital accumulation, continue to carry out the strategy of market diversification to reduce dependence on the developed countries such as European and American markets,and enter into emerging markets;according to local conditions, speed up the development of central and western regions.Governments need continue to adjust our foreign trade development strategy and develop green trade, circular economy and emerging industries, and improve resource and environmental performance and achieve sustainable development and social welfare.