Comprehensive Evaluation And Prediction Research Of Environmental Bearing Capacity Of Fujian Province

With the development of economic and social, humans has created a lot of material wealth more than any times before, living standard has greatly increased for people, however when people enjoy the fruits of victory, also caused harmful consequences to the ecological environment, consume a large amount of natural resources and ecological environment suffered serious damage. In the development of economy, pay attention to the development of society, economy and environment coordination problems, fully considering the regional environmental carrying capacity, if bearing capacity beyond the threshold, the whole system will be damaged. Fujian province as an important provinces of the channel west bank in the straits has played an important role in economic development, in recent years, Fujian province has got an the rapid economic development, but the pressure on resources and environment faced is more and more heavy. In the year of 2014, our country give further support on Fujian, accelerate the development of Fujian, this case should be pay attention to the activities of the human nature and natural ecological environment of coordination, correctly handle the contradiction between human and adapt to the natural ecological environment, make the regional environmental system within the scope of the maximum load bearing pressure. In view of this, understand the status and development trend of environmental bearing capacity of Fujian province to promote the social environment, economic environment, and environmental health resources in Fujian province coordinated development has important practical significance.Firstly, we has carried on the theoretical research of environmental bearing capacity in this paper, then summarize the definition, the establishment of evaluation index system and quantitative method for nearly 10 years related focuses on research results. Secondly, on this basis, the evaluation system of environmental bearing capacity of composite system is established,and using projection pursuit model, the method of principal component analysis, the ideal index method to give an environment overall evaluation on the society, economy, resources composite system of Fujian province from 2001 to 2013.Using the loading rate combined with entropy value method to social-economic-resources environmental bearing capacity of composite system in Fujian province to carry on the quantitative research, and analyses the bearing capacity in each of the change, moreover using the neural network model for bearing capacity prediction analysis. Finally, this paper on the basis of clear development target, put forward the countermeasures and suggestions on the improvement of the environmental capacity of Fujian province, aiming at enhancing the regional carrying capacity of system, promote the sustainable development. Main results as follows:(1) The environmental load of qualitative evaluation results show that similar results of projection pursuit and ideal index method, showed that fluctuations in performance rising, the environmental capacity of Fujian province to illustrate the environment during increases quickly under pressure.Principal component analysis showed that environmental capacity value is always at the rapidly rising stage, and there is no decline in the year, with the projection pursuit and ideal index method there is a certain difference, but has certain reference significance.Environmental bearing capacity of Fujian province in three kinds of method, qualitative evaluation, can be the development trend of comprehensive environmental system capacity, and three methods to obtain similar capacity development trend, carries on the quantitative analysis for the bearing capacity of system.(2) Environmental bearing capacity of quantitative evaluation results show that through the subsystems of social environment, economic environment, the synergy of resources and environment subsystem, the environment bearing capacity of Fujian province present a overall increasing trend, only a slightly lower from 2001-2002, the absolute value of environment capacity increase year by year, the environment pressure is increasing. Subsystem capacity of social environment, economic environment bearing capacity, resources environmental bearing capacity were fluctuated upward trend, show subsystem under pressure in the higher and higher in Fujian province in recent years, with the economic development the system capacity is also growing at the same time.(3) By measuring the environment loading rate, the result shows that the environment is in a weak state from 2001 to 2005, but the environment carrying rate is greater than 70% from 2006 to 2013, shows that the environment is in a state of optimal load, but at 0.8839 in 2013,which close to the high load condition. Other environment subsystem also from weak load stage rises to the optimal load stage, but the economic environment subsystem bearing rate is 0.9164 in 2013,which higher than 0.9.Illuating that the subsystem is in high load condition, and the large difference in the last few years.(4) Using the neural network model to predict environmental bearing state, the result shows that bearing rate from 2014 to 2018 were 0.9120,0.8614,0.8479,0.8377, 0.8470,2014.It indicate that environmental system is still in the high load condition at year of 2014, but the other in the future is in a state of optimal load, illustrating bearing space environment is suitable for the next few years.