Analysis Of The Basic Endowment Insurance Fund Operation In Dingxi City

China’s basic old-age insurance system combining the management mode taking account, to a certain extent, overcomes the PAYG system to cope with the aging of the population and the short plate complete accumulation redistribution function is weak, is an ideal model, but the 2009-2014 for Dingxi city qualitative analysis of basic pension fund operation, did not find a superior this kind of. According to the statistical data of Dingxi City Social Security Bureau and related survey data, the author preliminarily analyses the operation condition of the basic endowment insurance fund from Dingxi City, found in Dingxi City, the basic old-age insurance fund of collect is increasing year by year. The basic endowment insurance fund in Dingxi city 2013-2014 showing a close not to branch status, with the funding gap is gradually expanding, fund payment pressure increase. These imbalances will be negative influence to sustainable development of endowment insurance of Dingxi city. Rely on government financial subsidies to ensure adequate funding gap, pensions on time and in full.This thesis, through access to relevant literature, find out the influence factors of Dingxi city sustainable development of basic pension insurance fund, carries on the analysis. On this basis, the use of system engineering principles in prediction method, income, expenditure and fund the fund funds to establish the mathematical model, prediction and analysis of the running state of 2015-2020 years of basic old-age insurance fund model of Dingxi city. The relevant parameter is according to the state and the relevant policies of Gansu province endowment insurance, analyzes the Dingxi City Social Security Bureau of statistics annual report data and the Dingxi Municipal Bureau of statistics statistical yearbook data set.The prediction model of analysis conclusion:prediction during the 2015-2020 years, the basic old-age insurance fund of Dingxi city to close not to branch status will gradually increase, the past accumulation fund will all run out at the end of 2017 and the deficit. With the aging of serious development situation, assume that the government is not of financial subsidies, Dingxi City, the basic old-age insurance fund and late is the lack of self solvency. Summed up the main factors is the pension replacement rate is high, the proportion of payment is not reasonable, the over burden of the pension insurance and the proportion of the population imbalance and other institutional factors and the level of economic development is low, income from the operation of endowment insurance fund is low non system factors. This paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions, mainly to enhance the level of endowment insurance, supplementary old-age insurance development, establishment of a flexible retirement system science, to relax the fertility policy, rationally adjust the payment rate and the proportion of the scientific establishment of endowment insurance fund a diversified investment system. This paper not only provides a reference for the sustainable development of the basic endowment insurance fund in the city of Dingxi, also provides the basis for the study and formulate the development strategy of social security in western poverty area.