Risk Assessment And Control Of Personal Mortgage Loan Of ICBC Zhejiang A Branch

Personal housing mortgage loans have become the primary way for most home buyers in China today.Mortgage loan home purchases have not only eased the current economic pressure on Chinese buyers,but the interest generated by mortgage loans has also brought substantial economic benefits to banks.As a result,major Chinese banks have acted one after another and formulated a suitable mortgage loan policy for commercial banks to ensure the coordination of their business operations to make accurate and reasonable loan decisions.At the same time,while stimulating China's economic consumption,mortgage loans are also accompanied by a high risk of default.Once default events occur on a large scale and are uncontrollable,the result can only be that banks face huge economic gaps and eventually inestimable losses.Therefore,by evaluating the risk of private housing mortgage loans,it is essential to control the occurrence of non-performing loans and minimize the bank's property loss and avoid the risk of default in the event of bad behavior.This article selects 296 homebuyers who have performed bad defaults in applying for private housing mortgage loans from the ICBC Zhejiang A branch from 2013 to 2018 as the research object.First,factor analysis was used to extract significant public factors to perform a portrait analysis of bank customers to qualitatively judge whether high-risk behaviors have occurred.The results show that two public factors:value factors related to home buyers and time factors related to loans are constructed.The discriminant analysis model has a good and stable prediction effect.Secondly,logistic regression analysis is used to construct a multi-factor prediction model to quantitatively estimate the specific value of the occurrence probability of bad and high default behaviors.After comprehensively considering the predictive value of different risk factors and the practical value of the model,the conclusion is drawn to include age and house area.The multivariate logistic regression model of four variables,mortgage duration,and percentage(discount)can meet the purpose of quantitative research.Through the above-mentioned empirical research,not only the qualitative judgment of bad high default behaviors in personal housing mortgage loans can be realized,but also the risk probability value of high default behaviors of different individuals can be calculated quantitatively.Based on the empirical research conclusions and the characteristics of ICBC Zhejiang Branch A,this paper puts forward control measures and reasonable suggestions on the degree of bad default of personal housing mortgage loans.First,in order to effectively reduce the degree of default and maximize the recovery of bank losses,it is necessary to combine the characteristics of borrowers,bank loan policies,national macro-control policies and real estate characteristics when formulating loan policies.Secondly,by drawing on the successful management experience of domestic and foreign financial institutions,the bank's personal credit scoring system was further improved,thereby strengthening the risk management of personal housing mortgage loans of ICBC Zhejiang Branch A,and establishing and improving relevant risk management systems.Finally,rationally plan the housing mortgage loan credit management policy to provide effective suggestions for personal housing mortgage loan business risk prevention.