| Along with the issue of the No.l Central Document in 2013 and 2014, the development of family farm and the work of carrying out agricultural land verification are considered on the agenda. The development of family farm is dependent on the agricultural land transfer which is currently the greatest difficulty in its development. The necessary condition to guarantee a sound and orderly development of agricultural land transfer is to carry out the work of registration and certification of contract and management right of the agricultural land. The current urgent attention should be attached to problems like how to promote the agricultural land transfer, how to improve the availability efficiency of agricultural land, how to promote agricultural land scale operation, and how to ensure the long-term stable development of agricultural land transfer. Therefore, against the background of the development of family farm and agricultural land verification, it is quite necessary to discuss farmers’willingness to agricultural land transfer and predict the developing trend of agricultural land transfer. In order to better studying agricultural land transfer and its developing trend, it is necessary to focus on small farmer-households’ willingness of outward transfer as well as large farmer-households’willingness of inward transfer. It is also very helpful to conduct a simulation research on Agricultural Land transfer system.This paper selects Xinfeng County in Jiangxi Province as a research object. Firstly, the author chooses the method of questionnaire survey and field interview and proceeds from five aspects which are society, science and technology, economy, security and policy. On the basis of studying small farmer-households’ willingness to transfer agricultural land, the author has enriched the study of large farmer-households’ willingness in the process of agricultural land transfer, and concluded the influencing factors on farmers’ willingness of agricultural land transfer. Secondly, the statistical software SPSS20.0 is used to conduct a binomial Logistic analysis on the influencing factors and identify significant ones. Thirdly, from the perspective of farmers’increased income of the agricultural land transfer, this research has combined the agricultural land transfer with system dynamics, and uses Vensim to build up a model to analyze the relation among the variables in the process of agricultural land transfer. Besides, this thesis also simulates and predicts the developing trend of the agricultural land transfer system, and conducts analysis of the persistence and stability of the farmers’ willingness to transfer agricultural land. Finally, suggestions on improving agricultural land transfer are given based on empirical researches. Hopefully, it can provide theoretical and practical basis for a sound and orderly development of agricultural land transfer in the future.In this paper, the following conclusions have been made:(1) Through literature review and field research, the author has concluded three main reasons that small farmer-households’ unwillingness to transfer agricultural lands. About 38.93% of them hold the view that non-agricultural work is not a stable choice and they are fear of unemployment; 25.19% believe that their security comes from the hold of agricultural lands; and 12.21% think that the income of agricultural land transfer is not profitable. On the other hand, the author also lists three reasons for those who are willing to transfer agricultural lands.32.94% of them believe that income from farming is far lower than non-agricultural work; 18.82% hold the view that now the agricultural area is in lack of labor force for farming; and 15.29% think through agricultural land transfer they can settle down in cities and towns.Main reasons for large farmer-households’ unwillingness to transfer agricultural lands are as follow.38.89% of them believe that there is no need for expansion because of low operating income; 22.22% hold the view that more capital investment is needed because of the high transferring cost; and 12.96% are in lack of labor force. For those who are transfer agricultural lands, the reasons are listed as follow.44.17% of them are willing to expand and achieve a scale operation; 18.33% hold the view that because of government’s support, they can award more subsidy; and 15.83% think they can offer help to relatives and friends.(2) Results of the statistics show that four factors that have significant impacts on small farmer-households’willingness to transfer agricultural lands are "education level (X2)", "quantity of labor force for non-agricultural (X4)", "the proportion of non-agricultural income (X8)" and "anticipation of the reward for agricultural land transfer (X12)". The significance probabilities of the above factors are 0.018,0.001, 0.001 and 0.014, respectively. Influencing factors of large farmer-households’ willingness to transfer agricultural lands are "agricultural land production technology input(Q5)", "efficiency evaluation of agricultural land production and management(Q6)", "rental payments for other farmers transferring into agricultural lands(Q7)", "the cost of hiring workers(Q8)" and "complexity in the process of negotiation and transaction with small farmer-households(Q10)". The significance probabilities of the above factors are 0.000,0.078,0.001,0.001 and 0.000.(3) Through the modeling and simulation of Vensim on agricultural land transfer system, the following conclusions are as follow. Since the non-agricultural employment rate K1 has improved from 0.16 to 0.44 which is the national level, the growth rate of the number of farmers engaged in non-agricultural industry has reached 72.2%. The area of agricultural land which is able to be transferred and the income for small holders are increased significantly. Since the urbanization rate K2 has increased from 0.43 to 0.55 which is the national level, the area of agricultural land which is able to be transferred and the income for small holders are increased significantly as well. Since the non-agricultural income K31 has increased 20% from an initial value of 0.27, the income for small holders has increased to a significant extent. After the government’s support K32 has increased by 20% based on the original level, the income for small and large farmer-households outward and inward transferring has gained significant increase. The improvement of planting technology K4 plays an important role in increasing large farmer-households’ income of inward transfer.(4) Based on predictions and simulation of agricultural land transfer system, the author has provided several suggestions from the perspective of society, science and technology, economy, security and policy in order to promote long-term and stable development of agricultural land transfer. First, it is needed to enhance skills to improve the ability of non-agricultural employment. Second, it is needed to promote the development of non-agricultural industries and increase the proportion of non-agricultural income. Third, the government should increase policy support to encourage the scale operation of agricultural land. Fourth, it is suggested to increase investment in science and technology and make efforts to develop modern agriculture. At last, it is needed to establish a sound security system and promote the development of urbanization. |
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