Sensitivity Studies Of Coal Mine Production Logisticssystem Safety Factors

Coal resources has provided a favorable environment for improving energy security of the living standards and the rapid development of China’s economy,, dominating China’s primary energy consumption. However, the special coal storage status and geographical factors determine the bad conditions and the risk of country’s coal production. At present, on the one hand, the exploitation of coal resources in our country are greatly influenced by geographical factors, hydrological environment and on the whole it is dependent on natural factors. On the other hand, the structure of the coal mine production logistics system itself is complex, large and unpredictability, and the effect of the interaction of each subsystem presents multi-level relations.The mine accidents leading to coal mine production safety accident frequency and has brought the huge impact. It not only endanger the life safety and family happiness of the absenteeism, also to the entire social and economic development. To sum up, considering many factors affecting the safety of coal mine production logistics system and the complexity of system dynamics and characteristics, how to extract the key factors from the influence of many factors, and explore the key factors on the size of the effect of coal mine safety production system is becoming the urgent problem of coal mining enterprises.Based on the demand of the ability to promote safety production in coal mine and the serious situation of mine occur repeatedly, This paper analysis coal mine production logistics system security influence factors sensitivity based on rough set and the system dynamics method. The main research content is as follows:(1)This paper selects eight coal mine of Y coal group as empirical research object to identify the coal mine production logistics system safety factors. Collect the historical data of related influence factors of coal mine production logistics system security, combining with the dynamic and the complexity of the coal mine production logistics system itself, and use the method of system to analysis and identify all kinds of factors affecting the safety of coal mine production logistics system from the personnel, machinery, equipment, management, emergency measures to, and establish the system safety index system of influencing factors.(2)Recognition of coal mine production logistics system security key factors. Over access to the various factors influencing the system safety state, on the basis of collecting all kinds of factors affecting the coal mine production logistics system and the status of the safety in production the corresponding sample data, and analysis the various factors affecting the causality, selected key factors affecting the safety of coal mine production logistics system from the personnel factor, equipment factor, environment factor, management factor, emergency rescue capability factors influencing factors based on the rough set method.(3)Coal mine production logistics system security system dynamics modeling and sensitivity analysis of the key factors. On the basis of the main factors having been identified on the raw data collected and analyzed mine production logistics system uptime and accident abnormal state, forming factors and system security status of sample data sets. Used system dynamics method to establish the system dynamics model of relations between various influencing factors and system security state, and carried out the simulation, obtaining the sensitivity of the system safety level of the coal mine production logistics system in different factors. The result helps coal production enterprises to make an effective safety management decisions.In this paper, the research results show that the influence of the key factors to the coal mine production logistics security implications is not completely the same. Identify the influential factors of coal mine safety, and take measures for improvement. On the one hand, it is useful to put forward coal mine safety production decision; on the other hand, realize the coal mine safety production management and the allocation of resources has a certain practical significance.