| Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) is the result of the combined effects of human,social, economic and natural environment, such as in a variety of spatial and temporal scales,with a very complicated process.Regional and global simulation is an important goal of LUCC research, which is based on a certain area of land for a certain period of use of the status quo based on the use of various techniques to deduce and predict the future land use area.Land use pattern simulation is an important part of regional and global LUCC simulation, it has become a new direction LUCC research.CA-Markov model combines cellular automata CA model to simulate the behavior of complex systems capabilities and Markov(Markov) model to predict the long-term advantages, both to improve the prediction accuracy of the conversion of land use types, and can effectively simulate the spatial pattern of land use change, conducive to accurate mining land use temporal evolution of the information area.Lindian Songnen Plain is located north of the territory of meadow and marsh plains,agriculture is well developed.Economic development and climate change since 1990 led to local land use types of grassland, wetlands and other dramatic changes.In this paper, the research object Lindian, local 1994, 2004 and 2014 three Landsat remote sensing images based information sources, based on GIS and RS technology, extraction of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC) information and data were combined with relevant maps Head depending modified to obtain a more accurate three Land-Use and Land-Cover Change(LUCC)data.Research Lindian land use change information, and based on land-use transfer matrix analysis of land use dynamic characteristics Lindian quantity, structural change and land-use three types of transfer speed.IDRISI software-based, building-related transfer matrix and suitability Atlas(MCE)CA-Markov model using the land use pattern in 2025 to simulate predicted propose targeted countermeasures and suggestions for future land use and development Lindian.The main conclusions are as follows research:(1) Lindian nearly 20 years of land use change is extremely intense, where the amount of land use areas:In all types of land, dryland and grassland Lindian most, accounting for 38.12%and 24.98% respectively of the total land area.This 20-year period from 1994-2014, dry land,paddy fields and reduce the number of saline land, construction land, grasslands, wetlands and waters increased.(2) Dynamic aspects of land-use change:In 1994-2014 waters, swamps, and increase thespeed of the grass is relatively fast.Saline reduce the fastest, highest dynamic, is-4.39%.Upland and paddy reduction is relatively slow.Upland and paddy reduction is relatively slow.(3) Type of transformation of land use:The main destination for 2004-2014 converted into a dry land and meadows and marshes, where the grass is converted to dry land most of 852.58 km2.Swamp transformed into dry land for the largest proportion 60%.(4) The use of CA-Markov for 2025 Lindian land use / cover simulation results:By 2025,the total land area of the top four were dry land,grasslands,wetlands and saline,the proportion of total land area were 38.71%, 27.49%, 9.80%, 8.61%.Lindian dryland and grassland is mainly agricultural region, with the acceleration of urbanization in dryland and grassland conversion to increase the number of construction sites, the government should strengthen the protection policy for agricultural land.Focus on economic development, but also should pay attention to Lindian rational use of land resources.Both adhere to resource development and conservation, rational land use, scientific planning.The accuracy of the model through a comprehensive study, to illustrate the application of the model to predict a certain land use feasibility.CA and Markov model application Lindian land use forecasting models that can guide Lindian land use planning, decision-making basis for the Lindian sustainable economic and social development. |
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