Research On The Model Of Risk Evaluation And Risk Control For The Thermal Under The Condition Of Uncertainty

China’s power industry is in the process of changing from the operating system to the competitive market system, with dual characteristics of monopoly and market. Thermal power enterprises of some provinces which are rich in water resources have huge fluctuations of annual revenue which shows extremely unstable, and income risk is the major risk of thermal power enterprises. Income risk of thermal enterprises is caused by a series of uncertainties and irrationality of regulation policy. Therefore this paper conduct in-depth study of the thermal power enterprises income risk from risk management perspective.The main work of this article includes the following five aspects:Firstly, access to the literature of domestic and foreign thermal power enterprise risk research, described and comment on existing research results from two perspectives, Secondly, introduced the theories of economic theory expounded management and risk management as a theory support; Thirdly, used the analysis method of quantitative and qualitative combining thermal power corporate income risk identification studies, the establishment of risk hierarchy, and identify key risk factor measurement model by studying its impact on income influence the degree of risk; Fourthly, established the model of thermal power enterprise income risk based on the method of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; fifthly, recommended the suggestions from the angle of government regulatory policy and internal risk control.The main conclusions of this article are:thermal power enterprises’revenue risk factors can be divided into two categories:direct risks and original risks. Direct risks include electricity tariff risks, original risks include policy environmental risks, environmental risks and economic power alternative risk; Secondly, sensitivity analysis of thermal power enterprise of Hunan province in 2012 showed that electricity demand, water and hydroelectric power is the key factors which affecting the thermal power enterprise income risk; Thirdly, established income risk assessment model of thermal power enterprise based on Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, use Hunan province in 2012 as an example, the result showed that the income risk level is "high".