Risk Evaluation Study Of Thermal Power Plant Construction Project At Initial Stage Of Operation

To comprehensively implement the scientific concept of development, improve the state-owned assets supervision, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, strengthen risk management, the promotion of business continuity, stable, healthy development of State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission issued a "central enterprise-wide risk management guidelines." The promulgation of the regulations indicates that China has a comprehensive risk management guidance document and also shows that a comprehensive risk management of Chinese enterprises to enter. With the electric power system reform, electric power enterprises to compete in the market will face a variety of risks, especially thermal power plant construction projects in the early operation. How to identify, measure, assess and control the thermal power plant construction project to start operations with the risk of , has become a hot topic, but the thermal power plant construction projects, the risk of operating the initial research is very weak.In the article, a risk evaluation index system of thermal power plant construction projects in the initial operation was first established. According to the theory of risk management, combined with actual situation of thermal power plant construction projects in the initial operation, according to the principles and targets to build risk identification methods, select indicators.Analy external factors, risk indicators , and then research the construction period, the project operations, policy environment, environmental protection, financial situation and sustainable to build a risk evaluation index system of thermal power plant construction projects in the initial operation.BP neural networks, case-based reasoning, support vector machines and the Monte Carlo method is applied to evaluate risk of thermal power plant construction project in the initial operations. Due to the uncertainty and ambiguity of risk, and the absence of relevant data, improved triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process was applied to the risk assessment of thermal power plant construction project in the initial operation. When operate on multiple projects at the initial risk classification, the hierarchy support vector machines was applied in multi-level classification, experimental results show the good classification results.For complex systems, hierarchical multiple regression analysis is uesd in mid-long term forecast, based on examples of good forecasting results obtained. Establish combination method of mid-long term forecasting based on least squares support vector machine within the Bayesian evidence frame. The mothod resolve the defects of key parameters of support vector machine selection with Bayesian optimization parameters used, to improve the prediction accuracy. These methods later in the electricity market risk assessment, operational process risk in the load forecast risk assessment, financial risk assessment and other indicators of risk evaluation of prediction theory, is available as an expert judge of the theory.Research Hancheng power plant project under the actual conditions, with the establishment of the initial risk assessment indicator system, evaluate the basic situation of Hancheng power plant, integrated expert risk judgments, get the thermal to risk status of power plant construction project in the initial operation.Finally, the proposed thermal power plant construction projects, risk control and avoidance of methods, and for fuel management, power market risks, proposed management measures and recommendations.