Construction Of Real Estate Warning Indicator System And Policy Design

China’s real estate market in recent years, showing a trend of rapid growth, China’s economic growth has also played an important role in promoting. However, due to the steadily rising prices, more and more investors are attracted by its high profits, resulting in some cases disrupt healthy real estate market, real estate store room. Moreover, China’s real estate control policies, because of its policy-making in general is too hot or too cold for some time after the formal regulation in the real estate market, there is a certain lag, making China’s real estate market fluctuations, people live in the hope that it becomes increasingly out of reach.The real estate market volatility and regulatory realities exist certain lag policies based on the author boldly proposed to design a warning indicator system to adapt to the current real estate market. In this paper, the status of the real estate market, the author first gave a brief introduction of early warning system, and pointed out its problems, the reason is because of the market has not yet established a scientific integrity of the real estate market early warning indicators.In order to design a more objective system of early warning indicators of the real estate market, first of all, I collected some of the more effective real estate index, invite relevant experts, academics and policy audiences who were interviewed,17 indicators as a basis for determining the index system constituted indicators, and these indicators are divided into four categories index; then using the Delphi method, invite experts to rate the indicators, the major categories of indicators to calculate the right weight; second, Z-Score method using raw data standardization, Principal component analysis and then calculated for each index weight categories; third, the predicted value is calculated using the minimum error level; fourth, using three methods to set the relevant warning range. Based on the above method, eventually forming a more perfect real estate early-warning system.After the completion of the design of real estate early-warning system, and then the results of early warning system for warning come and make relevant policy recommendations to deal with, such as the introduction of real estate tax levy, elastic bank lending rates, improve housing security system, to China’s real estate market healthy and steady play a positive role in promoting development.