Prediction Model For Passenger Car Ownership And Scrappage Based On The Theory Of System Dynamics

Since the21st century, with the rapid development of china’s national economyand continuous improvement of people’s living standard, automobile changing fromluxury to high-grade durable consumer entered the average home. However, high-speed growth of car put social environment, energy and urban traffic under pressure,so at present it is universal awareness that the environment with more pollution, themore severe energy and traffic jam. The pressing issue is how to balance and improvethe sustainable development between auto industry and energy, environment andtraffic. However, to grasp the future automotive industry’s development trend is thekey to solve the problem so that government can formulate policy and take action.In the light of automobile’s severe influence on energy, environment and traffic,proceed from body part of passenger vehicles in China, this thesis will analyze theincreasing change trend of passenger vehicles’ new increment, car ownership andscrappage in the future. Firstly, on the basis of literature review, this thesis willanalyze passenger vehicles’ market demand from four factors policy, economy, priceand social environment and evaluate its new demand from three indicators car R.value, grade highway mileage and urbanization rate. Secondly, this thesis will use thetheory and methodology of system dynamics to construct passenger vehicles’ newincrement, car ownership and scrappage forecasting model, build multiple linearregression model for passenger vehicles’ new demand by partial least squares, andestimate key variable by mathematical statistics method in order to receive passengervehicles’ new increment, car ownership and scrappage from2014-2020. Finally, thisthesis will need the model to simulate passenger vehicles’ new increment, carownership and scrappage under different policy, analyze its effect and makesuggestions according to different policies encouragement and control.Passenger vehicles’ new increment, car ownership and scrappage compose aclose-loop feedback control system. Based on theory and methodology of systemdynamics to build forecast model, this thesis will predict passenger vehicles’ futuregrowth trend, which can provide data reference for the government to formulatepolicy and take action. Therefore, it has the realistic significance to promote thesustainable development between automobile and energy, environment and traffic.