A Research For The Influence Of Real-estate Price Fluctuation Based On The Market Expecting Of China’s Housing Mortage

In recent years, with real estate prices rising, many looming real estate bubble isan indisputable fact, especially in2007America sub-prime crisis sounded the alarmthat fluctuations in real estate prices easily lead to financial crisis, our country whichis mainly rely on bank credit to support the real estate market, so focus on theexpected prices which are possible impact to life and brought to the risk of the realestate industry, to avoid destabilizing the robust pace of China’s financial market andeconomic development.Firstly, based on the analysis of the effect of housing mortgage loans and realestate price fluctuations in the market expected, secondly the current situation withChina real estate market and bank credit are more closely linked, from the marketexpected angle to explore the relationship between them, and constructing thetheoretical model of the three, and then in the empirical analysis, the establishment of30a province (city) long term dynamic analysis of panel data model to pricefluctuations and housing mortgage loans, from the analysis of the relationshipbetween the market expectations, real estate price fluctuation and the stability of thebanking system in the early influence each other, and the fluctuation of real estateprice has a positive effect on the bank credit, is not conducive to the long-termstability bank credit, the influence degree will with the passage of time and graduallydecreased. Finally, based on the above analysis and the situation of our country, thispaper puts forward it is necessary to start from three aspects from the priceexpectation management, bank mortgage loan management and housing marketmanagement, effectively reduce the adverse effects of price fluctuations on thestability of macroeconomic system in China.