Research On Pricing Of Reverse Mortgage And Application Under House Price Fluctuation

The phenomenon of aging population is increasingly serious in our country, but social security system is far from perfection including lack of pension resources that make the state face an heavy pressure from the social pension. Housing reverse mortgage puts forward new ideas to solve this problem, it has great significance to relieve the aging crisis and improve their living standards. The key to housing reverse mortgage being successfully put into practice in China lies to price the product. From the perspective of research house value fluctuations, this article analysis the impact of house value fluctuations to the reverse mortgage product pricing, we set up ARMA model to predict the price of second-hand houses on the long-term behavior phased to solve the problem of pricing and promote the development of reverse mortgage.First of all, this article introduces research background, significance, recent situation at home and abroad. This article distinguishes the concept of House-For-Pension and reverse mortgage. Then the related theoretical basis are presented in detail. And reverse mortgage operating conditions in foreign countries and national implementation of these, on the basic experience of this product are analyzed. At the same time, this article points out the existing opportunities and challenges of implementation of reverse mortgage in China combined with national conditions, in order to create advantage and pursue the proposed loan mode.Secondly, this article analyzes the main factors affecting the price of reverse mortgage from the house value, interest rate and the remaining life of the borrower, especially the house value. And predicts future house value through ARMA model. In order to reduce the risk of housing price fluctuation and increase accuracy, the long-term behavior phased is put forward. Then improves the single-life pricing model and the double-life pricing model.Finally, through choose the related data of xi’an, predict the price of second-hand houses as the basis of reverse mortgage pricing, and set the interest rates and other related parameters to calculate the loan amount. Then make sensitivity analysis under the house price fluctuation.