The Evaluation Analysis And Prediction Of Chongqing Logistics Capability

At this stage, with the regional logistics continues growing, it plays anincreasingly important role in the scope of achieving the establishedoptimal allocation of resources and promoting economic growth, and alsoas the important symbol of the level of regional development. Regionallogistics capability is an important indicator of regional logisticsdevelopment, how to give a scientific orientation of regional logisticscapability is the premise of the regional logistics planning and construction.In this regard, the paper makes a related research about logistics; it can bedivided into four parts:The first part belongs to the introduction and basic theory, theintroduction of this article describes some of the major researchbackground, significance, and domestic and international research review,depicts the research content, research framework and innovations; thetheory part is mainly about the basic theory of regional logistics, regionallogistics capability connotation and characteristics, indicators of theselection criteria, builds regional logistics capability index system.The second part combines with the development of logistics industryin Chongqing’s actual situation and the selection criteria of indicators, thecapabilities of Chongqing logistics was subdivided into eleven indicators toreflect. Based on fuzzy matter-element theory and comprehensive weight,the paper quantifies the value of the logistics capabilities, gives thelongitudinal and transverse comparative analysis. This conclusion canprovide evidences for related departments to develop dislocation logisticsindustry.The third part selects multiple linear regression prediction model andgray prediction model, combined2002-2011data in Chongqing logisticscapabilities to have an example analyze. The result shows that the twopredictions models have higher accuracy and passed the test. Butcomparison with the multiple linear regression models, gray forecastingmodel has higher precision and more suitable for prediction. In the last ofthis part, this paper gives recommendations on how to improve Chongqinglogistics capability. The forth part is the thesis summary and outlook; it also proposesresearch direction in the future.The innovation of this paper makes logistics capability evaluationindex system and methods, bases on fuzzy matter element method andcomprehensive weight, quantifies the value of Chongqing logisticscapabilities, and gives a detail qualitative and quantitative analysis on eachindicator trends and increase the prediction content of Chongqing logistics,achieve the integration of quantify, analysis and forecasting.