Research On Methods Of Urban Rail Transit Trip Generation Forecasting

In recent years,many aspects of urban society and economy in China have maderemarkable achievements. However, at the same time, some of the urban problemshave gradually emerged. With the improvement of people’s living standards,carownership is increasing.It cause the traffic jams and environmental pollution, but alsoled to the parking difficulties.Although the city continues to expand outwards, butrelative to the demand for land, the supply obviously can not keep pace. The short ofland resources is an important factor which restrict the development of the city.Inorder to solve these problems, most of the world’s countries and cities have adoptedthe "bus priority" model of urban transportation development.Urban rail transit is animportant part of urban public transportation.It has become a national first choice oftransportation construction because of its fast speed, large volume, low pollution, lowenergy consumption, safe and comfortable.The scale of construction of urban rail transit should be based on the results of itspassenger flow forecasting.Currently, most of countries generally use "four-stagemethod" for passenger flow forecast, include trip generation, trip distribution,transportation method division and rail traffic flow distribution.Four stages issequential order, the original data of each stage is the result of the above stage. As canbe seen,"trip generation" as the first stage,it’s very important. It’s result directlyimpacts on the final results of the "four-stage method", affects the scale constructionand capital investment of urban rail transit. Therefore, urban rail transit trip generationforecasting method of the study is very necessary.First of all, the premise work of urban rail transit trip generation forecasting aredescribed.It Mainly includes two aspects:City residents travel survey and Urban railtransit survey. City residents travel survey mainly includes traffic zone division and the analysis of the features of city residents travel. Urban rail transit survey mainlyincludes the investigation and analysis of the data of urban social, economic,population, land use and related policies and regulations.This chapter uses acombination of qualitative and quantitative methods, with emphasis on the method ofclustering traffic zone which is based on fuzzy equivalent matrix.Secondly, the influencing factors and the common methods of urban rail transittrip generation are introduced. The influencing Factors mainly include: urban land use,the gender, age, occupation of the city residents, the develop of network information,the develop of urban society and economy and so on. Common forecasting methodsmainly include:the growth rate method, the original unit method,thecross-classification analysis method, the trip rate method and the function method.Focus of this chapter is the function method.Finally, the urban rail transit trip generation forecasting model which is based onurban land use are narrated. This chapter mainly includes:the relationship betweenurban transport and land use, particularly the urban rail transit;the concepts andquantitative methods of the location and location advantage; the urban rail transit tripgeneration forecasting model which is based on urban land use; GM (1,1) modelwhich predicts population and the quantitative method of the weights of land use andso on. This chapter is the focus of the full text.Trip generation and land use are closely linked together.Researchers have longbegun to study the relationship between Trip generation and land use, and thenestablish a lot of models. However, the traditional model involves only the "type","area" and so on. This chapter creatively joined the impact of land "location"and"reachability", and establish a urban rail transit trip generation forecasting model.