Research On The Farms’ Decision-Making Behavior Of Barley Production In China

In recent years, the amount and the value of barley take the first place in the importing grains in Chinese. It’s widely used in food, feed and brewing materials. At present, China’s demand for barley is growing rapidly and it major depends on importing. But the barley industry faces the declining of cultivated area and farmers’willing, it is caused mainly by two aspects:one is due to the rapidly rising of labour costs, production materials price and the rent, the cost of production of barley is increasing and income is decreasing. Another reason is barley have nothing policy protection, it\’s closely related with international market prices, farmers’ risk is bigger. Based on the date from Xinjiang province, Inner Mongolia, Anhui province, analyze the relationship between the cost and the profit, then use the logistic model to analyze the behavior of farmers on the production factors, to provide policy recommendations to promote the healthy development of China’s barley industry and increase farmers’ income.In this paper, the author analyze the impact of seed costs, fertilizer costs, pesticide costs, machinery costs, labor costs, lease costs and irrigation cost on the profit by using the Cobb-Douglas production function. The results show that production of barley is in the stage of decreasing returns to scale, the seed is the major reason. The pesticides and labor show also have effect on the profit. The machine cost has been too much already, the effect of fertilizer cost, irrigation cost and land costs is not significate. Then by using Logistic model, the author analyzes the behavior of the farmers, based on the farmers’ own characteristics, production characteristics and market factors. The results showed that:the impact of farmers planting years, barley yields, costs, prices and policy of agricultural subsidies are more significant, other factors affect is not obvious. It reflects the income is still the main factors leading to changes in household decision-making. At last, the author compares the benefit between the barley and wheat, analyze the impact on the farms’behavior.To solve these problems, we propose the following recommendations:First, strengthen the construction of basic education in countries, skills training, and improve the cultural level of the barley growers. Second, accelerate the transformation of the agricultural way of operating and promoting a moderate scale management. The third is to support the local development of barley cooperation, strengthening the organization farmers, improve the participation of farmers in the market. Fourth, broaden the way to sell barley sales, increase the member in circulation. Fifth, establish barley production support policies and the price support system.