| China has benefit a lot of economic interests from the reform and openness, but the development model of high pollution, high energy consumption and low efficiency have hindered the economic development of our country. The rapid growth of Chinese carbon emissions, in addition to the growth of economics scale, the return effect and the lock effect of technology progress also play a key role.Due to the carbon emissions return and lock effect, the equilibrium relationship exists between the complex technical and scale of carbon emissions. Although the technology improves the utilization of energy, reduces the emissions of carbon dioxide to some extent, in the long term, the carbon emissions return and lock effect will eventually lead to the expansion of economic scale, the promotion of energy consumption, the increasing of carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, It is uncertain that improving the low carbon economy technology will reduce the carbon dioxide emissions scale, the mechanism of the effect of the technology on the scale still need further study.The article analyses carbon emissions return and lock effect of Chinese macroscopic aspect from the point view of carbon emissions. We redefine the return effect and lock effect of carbon emissions which considers the structure factor. In terms of theory, we analyses Chinese low-carbon technology in return and lock effect; In terms of empirical aspects, based on date of the carbon emissions, economic growth, industry structure and energy consumption, we decompose the carbon emissions and divide into scale effect, structure effect and technical effect. Then we establish the VAR model by means of the date of scale effect and technical effect, study on the relationship between them, and build the impulse response model. Through the analysis of the pulse response, we can obtain the impulse response graphs of the carbon emissions in scale effect and technical effect and their mutual impact. |
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