Measurement And Trend Prediction Of Carbon Emission Effect Of Land Use In Shanghai

Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel combustion to produce the accumulation of greenhouse gases in order to have a negative impact on the global ecological environment and climate change, and land as a part of human activity carriers and natural ecological system, whether it is human society economic development, energy consumption or ecosystem carbon cycle process, and land use are closely related. The land and irrational development and utilization will not only reduce the efficiency of social production, increase the waste of energy, will destroy the original soil carbon balance, the original land change as the carbon source sink. Especially in the climate conference in Paris after the implementation of converted by top-down mandatory emission reduction mode under the background of independent contribution to emission reduction is studied by means of improve the land use planning, adjusting land use structure, transformation of land utilization technology to achieve low carbon development is of great significance.The study on land use and carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the relationship between the regional carbon emissions accounting and the change and driving mechanism of land use mode (LUCC), reflects the growth of construction land on carbon emissions contribution measure. But the lack of existing research on more deep-seated land use changes in the way the effects of carbon emissions and optimized regulation of, especially in the current China town of the fast urbanization, industrialization and motorization background for industrial land, urban residents and traffic with carbon intensity changes in the urban system of low carbon economy research is lacking. So this paper selects the industrialization starts earlier, and capital and energy intensive higher degree of Shanghai as an example, to land use change and carbon emission driving on the main line, from the environmental science and systems science interdisciplinary perspective, system of Shanghai city land using and study of carbon emission effect, to the Yangtze River basin or other similar cities provide reference.In previous papers on land use and carbon emissions on the basis of the study, the first collection of Shanghai city in recent twenty years of energy consumption, land use, industrial and agricultural production data, and analyze the relevant characteristics. Then this basis constructed for Shanghai City carbon emissions and carbon measurement method, identify energy consumption and material production sector carbon emissions characteristics of dynamic change and the carbon emissions of the project to implement the different land use, analysis of large urban land changes caused by carbon emissions, the characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of carbon intensity and carbon footprint. In order to determine the human factors in Shanghai built land carbon intensity stimulating or inhibitory effect on the relationship between the logarithmic mean Di’s index method (LMDI) carbon intensity growth according to the four kinds of energy intensity, carbon intensity, economy and population effects contribution rate of decomposition. Subsequent to quantitative analysis above human driving force effects on carbon emissions, the STIRPAT model from the land use changes, the level of wealth, the change of population and technology improved four point of change of carbon emission driving force for quantitative analysis, which reveals the construction and other factors driving the marginal effect of carbon emissions. Because the city carbon emissions and driving factors with potential rules in time series, so by exponential smoothing method to the influence factors of time series based on the trend of carbon emission prediction. At the same time, according to the existing planning of Shanghai city on the driving factors of carbon emission scenarios set, finally using STIRPAT in different scenarios of carbon emission trends were corrected, the main results are as follows:(1) Shanghai terminal energy consumption and electricity carbon emissions continue to grow in the past ten years, and industrial sector’s carbon emission with maximum (accounting for maximum is 57.91%), leading to the industrial carbon emissions in all types of the highest. And traffic land carbon emissions growth fastest (the average annual growth rate of 13.8%), is also the highest carbon intensity per unit area of land type. So from the land using low carbon perspective, industrial and traffic land is the starting point of carbon emission reduction in the future.(2) Shanghai agricultural land area continued to shrink, but it is still the main type of carbon sequestration of land, city green space function is growing rapidly, but because of the smaller base carbon absorption is still weak. The carbon footprint is estimated that 211001Km2 productive land to disposing of urban runs the carbon emissions, far more than the Shanghai actual division area caused severe ecological deficit. From the river basin level to consider Shanghai has become a high intensity point carbon emission source, to the surrounding ecological environment to bring greater pressure.(3) the construction of Shanghai with effects of carbon intensity increment decomposition, economic effect of carbon intensity is positive role in promoting and more strongly influenced, and the improvement of energy structure of carbon intensity only weak negative to the pulling effect and this effect is gradually weakened. On carbon emissions factors driving quantitative analysis of force, that economic factors and construction land expansion of carbon emissions incremental effect is significant, per capita GDP and construction land area for every 1% increase in will lead to increased carbon emissions 0.773% and 0.166, and technology improvement on carbon emissions growth has certain inhibition effect and performance for unit GDP each reduced by 1%, the carbon emission reduction 0.173%.(4) the total amount of carbon emissions will continue to grow in the next period of time, if the current growth rate of 1.5 in 2030 will reach tons, to bring serious pressure on the ecological environment. If appropriate to slow down the pace of economic growth and control the size of the city, and take some of the demand control, energy efficiency control of emission reduction measures, can reduce the amount of carbon emissions by about 40%. If we take a strong energy-saving emission reduction measures, although it can control the level of carbon emissions stable at 61 million tons, but will harm the normal social development needs, only with reference value.(5) Shanghai in the development of clean energy, improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption per unit of output has been at the leading position in China, although there is still potential for further improvement, but does not control the size of the economy under the background of, the improvement of energy efficiency will eventually is the rapid growth of economic scale offset, so moderate slow economic growth rate is of low carbon development in Shanghai is the most critical measures.