Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation Method Based On The Investment Value Of Listed Commercial Banks And Its Application

With the deepening of global economic integration, China’s economy isgradually opening up.China’s banking demonstrated the strong competitiveness andgood development prospects around the2007financial crisis, and China’s bankingsector stocks were favored by investors increasingly. As of March2012China had16listed commercial banks, they formed a scale effect of bank shares plates andprovided investors with more choices. Meanwhile, commercial bank managers,investors and other evaluation information users are increasingly focusing on thecommercial banks performance in a period of continuous-time. According to its stateof development for some time, they propose appropriate policies or make theappropriate decisions. So, the author proposes to solve such a comprehensiveevaluation based on dynamic idea.First, index values’ contributions to the comprehensive evaluation value willchange with the changes of commercial bank’s investment strategy and businessstrategy in different fiscal years. In order to reflect the "contributions" of the indexsare dynamic and changing, author will design weight as the interval form.In order tomaintain more practical and objectivity, interval weight informations should not relysolely on the artificial setting, but integrate the extent of change of "contribution"within a period. So, a mapping weight determination algorithm is presented. Thisalgorithm can better determine the weight information’s ranges which are caused bythe fluctuations of the index values in different stages and it can coordinate theadjustments of evaluation index values and weight information.Next, due to the special organization form of commercial banks, the intrinsiclink between the current status and the development trend is extremely important tothe majority of investors from the perspective of investment value. In order to provideinvestors or policymakers a smoother transition from evaluation to decision-making,the improved method integrates more pertinent incentive controlling thinking.Concepts such as acceleration and the acceleration index, etc. are introduced to reflect the variation trend of index values in different time points; and by determining themerit gain amplitude, the values of dynamic incentive evaluation index could beobtained.Finally, the author compares the conventional static comprehensive evaluationresults and conclusions using our model. The effectiveness and more practical of theproposed method are illustrated.