Evaluation Study On The Risk Of Coal Economic Operation

Coal is the main energy in our country, which running smoothly is important toensure national energy security. At this stage, the low level of coal economicoperation is due to some adverse factors such as overcapacity, weak downstreamdemand, impact of imports of cheap coal. While the important position of China’s coal-based energy is unshakable, the industry will keep its prosperity in a long term.Considering the current difficult environment, the risk of economic operation on coalresearch is particularly important.This paper made a deeply study and discussion on the economic operation risk ofChina’s coal economy. Methods of empirical analysis, normative analysis, qualitativeand quantitative analysis were adopted in it. First, defined the conception of the coaleconomic operation risks and the objectives of the coal economic operation. Thenwith the qualitative analysis method, analyzed the realationship between the factorsof coal various economic performance based on the momental economic situationand the operation mechanism of China’s coal economy; Next, established riskassessment index system based on four dimensions, which were supply risk, marketrisk, resource and environment risk, and micro-economic risk; Furthermore, madethe indexation through fuzy ideology. Built the risk assessment model of coaleconomic operation through the AHP structure model and Entropy method. Based onstudy above, evaluated2000-2012’s risk of China’s coal economic operation frommultiple levels and multiple perspectives by quantitative analysis method. Forcast2013-2020’s risk trend of China’s coal economic operation through findig therelationship between various indicators. Moreover, analyzed how the risk change indifferent scenarios. This research proved that:(1)2018will be a turning point yearfor coal economy, coal economy may enter a new "golden period" then, or runningmore difficult;(2) The level of GDP growth may accelerate the appearance of coaleconomic turning point;(3) The changes of energy structure will increased or evenchange the trajectory of risk trend of China’s coal economic operation;(4) In thesituation of oversupply, import does a little influence to coal economic operation.Finally, put forward some specific countermeasures and suggestions such as,building coal reserve base, increasing technology investment, building demandforecasting system to prevent the risk of China’s coal economic operation.