The Research Of The Development Prediction And The Space Of Construction Industry’s Growth

During the past three decades, the contribution rate of China’s construction in thenational economy increased from1.3%in1979to6%in2012, even up to the10%. Soit occupied a very important position in the process of industrial development. Basedthe situation of industry analysis the space and path of the construction as a importantindustry in our country is very of great significance to the the industrial parties involved.In this paper, it will conducet the theoretical induction and stocktaking to analysis thedevepment of construction in Chongqing, and calculate the contribution rate of factorsbased on the mathematical models, then propose the development initiatives.At first, conbianed with domestic and international literatures on constructiontheory of the economic growth and industrial development from the background, makea clear definition of economic growth, elaborate the development of economic growththeory. And analysis the industrial evolution theory from the elements of four aspects,including basic elements, division of labor, industry life cycle, industry evolution paths.Secondly, comparied the industrial scale, practitioners of scale, efficiency levels,profitability, competitiveness, economic and other aspects of the internal constructionwith the municipalities and provinces in the western region, then give a clear definitionof the position and status of construction.Thirdly, based on the construction of Chongqing scale data, select Unbiased GrayMarkov chain approach and Logistic model to predict the growth trend of Chongqingconstruction and industrial growth stage, make a growth spatial prediction ofconstruction in Chongqing.Finally, based on the C-D function, combined with mathematical formulas aboutintensive and extensive, calculate the contribution rate of factors, intensive degree,extensive, degree about construction of Chongqing, and then formulate developmentstrategies, propose four important measures, including thr industrial optimization,technology development, enterprise outward expansion, industry personnel training.