Research On Probabilistic Risk Analysis Of The Oil And Gas Exploration And Development Projects Overseas

Risk assessment is the weak links of the economic evaluation in china. traditional risk analysis techniques have been difficult to adapt to the new economic development needs. Especially for the overseas oil and gas exploration and development projects which is in high investment and risk. Currently, international oil companies all treat the uncertain risk evaluation as the core economic assessment. As the risk probability of dealing with the uncertain’good method, Monte Carlo has been widely used in the major oil companies. It is worth to mention that, our country’s economic evaluation technology is still in the early stages of the traditional risk analysis. Our common practice in domestic is sensitivity analysis or breakeven analysis through cash flow model. Compared with the random simulation of big international oil companies, our traditional methods have simple calculation and little accuracy, can not comprehensively simulate future’possible changes, which has poor practical results. In order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods and make up for the economic evaluation of the weak links of the oil and gas exploration and development projects, this paper is based on relevant research at home and abroad, which is on the basis of the traditional methods, adopt the Monte Carlo method to improve the uncertain risk analysis.Firstly, due to the specific reality of the oil and gas exploration and development projects overseas, this paper summarizes the five kinds of income distribution pattern and characteristics of the main tax provisions. Based on the existing business cooperation modes, this paper summarizes the shortcomings and disadvantages in the process of the oil and gas cooperation’s evaluation system of china economy in recent yeasSecondly, based on the existing risk assessment techniques, this paper summarizes the latest overseas research on the probabilistic risk analysis, deeply describes the applicability and evaluation process of Monte Carlo method used in the process of risk assessment for international oil and gas exploration and development projects and has a deep study for the key technologies (select the major risk factors and determine the type of probability distribution)Finally, this paper uses Monte Carlo techniques in a case study for an oil field project. Monte Carlo method is introduced to the cash flow model, which combined the Economic benefits and risk assessment of the project, greatly solute the sensitivity analysis and scenario simulation that can not achieve the calculation of risk probability.Practice has proved that Monte Carlo-based risk assessment methods in overseas oil and gas project economic evaluation and follow-up study of business strategy has good practical value, which is worth drawing of oil companies.