Study On The Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Transport Infrastructure Projects Under Uncertainty

In recent years,China's traffic infrastructure projects and the residents of the investment demand is maintaining growth.Construction of transport infrastructure projects to meet the growing public demand,while the duration of the operation period and the number of years to match the level of public consumption.However,in recent years,the road to pay the number of years and the amount of payment caused by hot,the cause of the controversy is mainly due to the government in the decision-making stage is not a good prediction of the cost of the project income led to delay or unreasonable charges.However,the cost of transport infrastructure projects is difficult to accurately estimate,especially during the initial decision-making period.Whether from time to time or from the space side,the whole stage of the project involves uncertain factors,the uncertainty of these factors constitute the risk of project decision-making.Based on China's national conditions,traffic infrastructure projects are government-led and with a public nature of the project,so the basic cost of transport infrastructure projects must be measured in the perspective of the overall social environment.Based on the literature collating,it is found that the existing cost and benefit uncertainty research uses probability analysis,which ignores the relationship between the project factors,especially for the operational phase.This problem can't simply use the linear formula to express.In this paper,we will use the system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the influence of the uncertainty in the nonlinear system on the cost and benefit of the project construction period and operation period.In this paper,the cost of the project takes into account economic,social,environment,management and other aspects,these non-economic modules of the benefits and cost indicators into economic data,by comparing the project construction and operation of the net present value of the decision-making.The content of my paper is divided into three parts:Firstly,the uncertain factors that affect the cost and benefit of the project are analyzed theoretically.The project-risk decomposition structure matrix is used to identify the factors influencing the project cost and benefit during the project construction period and operation period.Then,based on the economic,social,environmental and management basis,the paper analyzes the operation of the basic project of transportation,and constructs the system dynamics model of "economic-social-environment-management-engineering" and quantifies the cost and benefit of the project.Finally,in order to analyze the influence of uncertain factors,the Monte Carlo experiment is carried out on the basis of the system dynamics model,and the change of the cost and benefit of the project under the single factor and the combination factor is obtained,so as to provide suggestions for the project decision.My paper draws the following conclusions:Under the single uncertainty of construction period,the impact of management is relatively greater than that of environment.Under the single uncertainty of operation period,the change of discount rate in economic risk has the greatest influence.The effect of cost-benefit is not equivalent to a single factor that affects the simple summation;engineering projects that do not consider uncertain net present value greater than zero are not necessarily acceptable,but also need to combine expectations and standard deviations in uncertain situations to be considered.