Decision-Analysis-System Design Of The Freeways Construction Projects Under PPP Mode For Private Sector

As an important transportation infrastructure related to the national economy,the planning and construction of expressway network has important economic and social significance.However,the huge investment in the construction of expressway network makes the governments at all levels face greater financial pressure.In order to solve this contradiction between supply and demand,the combination of expressway construction project and PPP mode arises at the historic moment.As an important participant in the PPP project,social investors need to make decisions about whether to participate in the PPP project investment and under what conditions to participate in the investment.The core issue of its decision is the return on investment,so it is necessary to help them fully investigate and analyze the profit of the project,the conditions of the project cooperation,the structure of the income and expenditure of the project,the subsidies and the conditions of the government in the period of operation,and the monitoring and control of the risk.But the traditional financial evaluation model is not applicable in many ways due to the special operation mode of Expressway PPP projects.Moreover,the financial calculation model,the calculation of boundary conditions and the calculation parameters of PPP projects will become more complicated as the progress of negotiations between the two sides has been constantly adjusted.In order to solve this problem,a financial evaluation and risk analysis method suitable for Expressway PPP project life cycle is sought.Through literature research,this paper summarizes and summarizes the existing methods of financial evaluation and risk analysis of general construction projects,and then combines the specific practical characteristics of the highway PPP project to set up an industry targeted evaluation system.At the same time,in view of the situation that the project risk is difficult to realize quantitative analysis,the Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to analyze the financial indicators under the impact of risk to solve the mathematical characteristics of these indicators.In addition,another main part of this paper is to encapsulate the above models in the VB environment and build a decision analysis system based on the investor’s perspective.The availability of the system is tested by an example,and the results show that the system can simplify the financial evaluation work process of the expressway PPP project,reduce the calculation error caused by human factors and help the investors make scientific and reasonable decision conclusions.