Risk Analysis Of Mining Capital Overseas Investment

ABSTRACT:Risk analysis of mining capital overseas investment is a complex project, dealing with various risk factors, associating with technical, environmental, political, economical aspects and so on. And also, mining investment decision making takes the key point during the evaluation. Therefore, studying on the issues of risk identification and evaluation method, contributes to the safety of the mining capital overseas investment.Firstly, risk factors were identified systematically. In the meantime, a price forecasting model was proposed on account of its importance among the sensitivity factors. And then, decision making methods were introduced. At last, an assistant decision making system was designed. The main research achievements are as follows:(1)Combined with BP network and swarm intelligence algorithm, a price forecasting model optimized by QPSO was proposed. The experiments showed that its generalization ability and prediction accuracy were better than traditional methods.(2)An assistant decision making system for mining resource from aspects of requirement analysis, system design, function structure and etc was designed and applied to practice.(3) The main risk factors during the evaluation were identified and summarized systematically. A mining overseas investment decision making model was proposed based on G1method and variation coefficient method, applied on uranium mine investment project.