Forecasting Method Of Chuanjiang River Ro-Ro Transportation Market’s Fright Volume Based On GABP Networks

Ro-Ro transportation refers to a way of maritime transportation that uses Ro-Roto bring goods and shipment together. Developments of Ro-Ro transport at home andabroad are outlined, and development process of China’s Ro-Ro transport is reviewed.The development and status of Ro-Ro transport of Yangtze River are analyzed indetail. Based on survey research, due to the change of road structure of Yangtze Riverregion, the survival and development of Yangtze River Ro-Ro transport are faced withserious threats. It is imperative to forecast the future freight volume of Yangtze RiverRo-Ro transport with assured accuracy, and generate strategies to ensure the healthydevelopment of Yangtze River Ro-Ro transport. This paper adopts the GABP(Genetic-BP Neural Network) model to forecast the freight volume of Yangtze RiverRo-Ro transport. Comparative data is used to ensure the accuracy of the model，which solves the imbalances of traffic and capacity. On the basis of that, somedevelopment strategies are put forward in order to guarantee the survival anddevelopment of Yangtze River Ro-Ro transport.In the chapter of introduction, the background and significance of this researchare presented, and the research statuses at home and abroad are elaborated then. Thesecond chapter introduces related theories and methods, which mainly containsintroductions of BP neutral network and Genetic Algorithm. The third chapterpresents the development situation of Yangtze River Ro-Ro transport, which alsocontains the descriptions of development situation of Ro-Ro transport at home andabroad.The fourth chapter applies GABP model to forecast freight volume of Ro-Rotransport. Comparisons between the GABP method and other method are conductedand the limitations of other methods are shown. The fifth chapters are core sections ofthis research. Due to the advantages of GABP model, GABP model is applied inpredicting freight volume. According to the historical data of Ro-Ro transport market,a GABP based freight volume forecasting model of Ro-Ro transport is conducted.Based on the predicting results, the optimal capacity resource allocation of YangtzeRiver Ro-Ro transport is proposed. The fifth chapter pointes out the problems ofYangtze River Ro-Ro transport market, which includes problems of transportationenterprises and internal market, and gives some development strategies.The sixth chapter summarized the whole research. The prospect of developingRo-Ro transport and its deficiencies are described. Finally, the direction of furtherresearch is put forward.