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Study And Trend Prediction On The Spatial Distribution Of Population In Chongqing

Posted on:2017-05-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:T X WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2297330485994563Subject:Demography
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Different places endow different natural and cultural resources and unbalanced development of economy, then, population flow takes place naturally. As a result, the regional spatial distribution of population evolves with population flow. Data referenced in this paper include Chongqing census data in 2000 and in 2010, and population statistical yearbooks from 2005 to 2015.Research involved in this thesis are as follows: First, the paper predicted the trend of population evolution in the districts of urban areas of Chongqing, new development zones of Chongqing, ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing. Second, the paper analyzed influential factors of spatial evolution of population distribution of Chongqing. Then, by using the grey system theory modeling software(GTMS3.0) based on the assisted model of pGM(1,1) this thesis making a prediction of evolving trend of population in varied Chongqing functional zones. At last, based on the trend of population flow in varied Chongqing functional zones, the paper proposed constructive suggestions on guiding population flow.In recent five years, population density in core functional areas has been showing an decrease tendency, while population density in re-development urban areas of Chongqing and new development zones of Chongqing is on the rise, at the same time, population density in ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing and ecological protection areas in the southeast of Chongqing remains stable. As to out-migrant numbers of population, Top-three districts are new development zones of Chongqing, ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing, among which, population flow in the district of new development zones of Chongqing and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing tends to flow to outside of the city, and is gradually gaining momentum. From the perspective of population prediction, if there is no interference of significant changes of polices, population in urban areas of Chongqing and new development zones of Chongqing will represent an increase, and growth rate of population in new development zones of Chongqing outweighs urban areas of Chongqing. On the contrary, population in ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing will represent a decrease, and the decreasing number of population in ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing is much larger than ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing. In general, this thesis predicted that during the period from 2016 to 2025, urban areas of Chongqing and new development zones of Chongqing will be the main areas that attract population flowing inside, with an increase of the number of resident population. Meanwhile, ecological conservation development zones in the northeast of Chongqing and ecological protection zones in the southeast of Chongqing would be areas that population flows outside, with a negative growth in the number of resident population.
Keywords/Search Tags:population distribution, population prediction, population flow, main functional areas
PDF Full Text Request
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